John Authers in the FT on “Brexit shows no greater loser than political and market experts”

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“[I]n political forecasting, we need to be humble. For investors, that means being balanced and hedged, and not approaching an important, unpredictable event as though it is a certainty. It does not mean abandoning prediction markets. ‘We need to be patient,’ says Dr Tetlock, ‘and not toss out our best forecasting systems every time that happens’.”

John Authers, Financial Times, July 1, 2016

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