A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the Wharton School ran a Vehicle Innovations Forecasting Challenge in 2016 and offers an exemplary case in point on the value of post-mortems: while the pace of change in the market for electric vehicles did not meet the expectations of industry optimists, autonomous vehicles made surprising headway. Read more on the Mack Institute’s blog and look out for the Mack Institute’s 2017-2018 Forecasting Challenge coming soon on GJ Open!
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