“The outcome was clear … the computer won.”
In the heat of the 2016 U.S. presidential race, Laura Sydell of NPR deployed an interesting experiment: pitting two pundits (journalists from the left and right) against a computer (designed by a digital analytics firm called “Quid”) to see how each contestant fared in predicting election developments.
In an effort called “Pundits V. Machine,” Sydell asked the pundits and the operators of the computer to predict what campaign controversies would dominate the news over the following month. The outcome was clear … “the computer won.”
However, the article on the experiment wraps up with a key point: “… at a time when analytics and big data are being used to predict all kinds of things, Buczaczer and others think it’s important to remember: Computers help expand the human mind. They don’t replace it.”
In this vein, Good Judgment is leading an exciting, cutting-edge research program in partnership with IARPA (the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) and top researchers in both human judgment and artificial intelligence. The Hybrid Forecasting Competition will pair the ingenuity of human analysts with cutting edge machine systems (including statistical models and algorithms.)
Take advantage of this unique opportunity to participate as a volunteer forecaster and play an important role in exploring the ways that human and artificial intelligence can work together to outperform either humans or machines working alone. This project will develop and test methods to optimize human/machine collaboration for the creation of maximally accurate geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.
Good Judgment is looking for highly motivated, inquisitive and competitive volunteer forecasters to participate in this innovative research project. Specific qualifications include:
● An insatiable thirst for exploring news topics ranging from current events to financial developments
● Dedication to the task: keeping on top of developments and logging your forecasts
● An open mind and the ability to adapt to new situations
To learn more and become part of the HFC project, visit this website: hybridforecasting.com