Superforecasting the Future of Europe with Stratfor

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Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing. There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use […]

Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets, Talks Superforecasting

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by Ben Kantor, Good Judgment Associate “Adapt or die” – Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball Good Judgment loves applying better forecasting and decision making to complex problems. So we get excited to hear about innovative ways forecasting is being applied in the real world. Typically, we work with industry leaders in commercial, […]

Top 10 Books Recommended by Superforecasters

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Good Judgment professional Superforecasters are an extraordinary, diverse, and intellectually curious bunch of people. In addition to their shared passion for forecasting, they have a shared passion for debating politics, philosophy and books on our forums. Typically, Superforecasters are expert in their chosen domain, but also tend to be polymaths. When the Superforecasters started debating […]

Who are the Superforecasters?

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The Superforecasters, identified through the Good Judgment Project research, are the backbone of Good Judgment’s forecasting services. In particular, it is through their forecasting prowess on Superforecasting teams that we can offer accurate, well calibrated forecasts to our Analytics clients. We have kept score on every forecast made by Superforecasters since 2011. They have a proven […]

Forecasting Disaster, Alleviating Suffering

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Imagine humanitarian aid on the ground, ready to go when (or even ready before) it is most needed. When cold, hungry refugees flee their homes in advance of Taliban fighting in Afghanistan… or when increasingly dangerous storms jeopardize food supplies… or when government and rebel forces clash, risking civilian lives. Anticipatory aid for disasters could […]

Superforecasters Weigh In: To Forecast the First 100 Days, What Should You Be Reading?

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One of our most frequently asked questions on Good Judgment Open (GJO) is: “What are the Superforecasters thinking, and reading about this topic?” In The First 100 Days, a forecasting challenge co-sponsored by GJO and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, members of the public are invited to enter their predictions on the Trump Administration’s “First […]

Three Ways Superforecasting™ Enhances Scenario Planning

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  Scenario planning helps organizations make better decisions about long-term, strategic options. Scenarios make alternative futures more salient to decision-makers, while highlighting the uncertainty around which scenario will materialize. Here’s where Good Judgment comes in: Superforecasting can help quantify the uncertainty.  Good Judgment Superforecaster® and management consultant Kate Patterson describes three ways Superforecasting can support […]

GJI Co-founder Philip Tetlock Delivers “Masterclass” to the World Government Summit in Dubai

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Dr. Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and co-founder of Good Judgment Inc, delivered a Masterclass called “Superforecasting: Enabling Better Decisions by Enhancing Foresight” to the World Government Summit in Dubai in late October 2016. The Masterclass was part of an effort to underscore the work of the UAE Government […]