Two steps forward, how many steps back?
The Magic Kingdom reopened to visitors. Major League Baseball started its long-delayed regular season. But Disney World is already cutting back hours, and MLB has postponed several games due to COVID outbreaks. All of which makes us wonder: Will the pandemic be sufficiently under control to permit the Tokyo Olympics to be held in 2021?
Check back often – we update our probability forecasts daily at 7am EDT, refresh commentary periodically, and launch new questions almost every week.
In a recent interview with the Financial Times, the chief executive of the Tokyo organizing committee claimed that the Games would go forward even “with corona.” This Superforecaster® sums up the majority perspective:
Generally agree with other forecasters’ assessment that it will either proceed or be cancelled given need for sufficient prep time[, rather than be postponed again]. Starting relatively optimistic on lessons being learned from major sports, vaccine developments, possible reduction in footprint of games (making it less risky) as the most likely outcome.
View today’s forecasts and more Superforecaster commentary >>
Headlines focus on possible FDA approval of one or more vaccines this year. Our question to the Superforecasters asks about widespread distribution of a vaccine. On that point, they’re skeptical about anything happening this year. They also see Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) rather than full FDA approval as being the most likely outcome for the various therapies under consideration.
A Superforecaster with biotech experience offers this sobering comparison case:
Enormous amount of money, effort and very bright brains has been thrown at finding an HIV vaccine. The output has massively benefited virology, medicine, immunology and cell biology studies. But after 35+ years, there is still no vaccine – and none is on the horizon (although people are still working on it).
Most Superforecasters see little reason for full FDA approval of any COVID-19 treatment. Stay tuned, though, to see how Gilead’s August 10th announcement that it has filed for full approval of remdesivir impacts their forecasts. One Superforecaster already notes that he is …
Sticking to a decent chance of remdesivir getting full approval by the end of the year.
Progress on a fiscal stimulus package stalled last week, leading President Trump to take executive action on temporary measures. When will a major stimulus package pass? And how will dysfunction in Washington impact the November elections?
Below, we share the Superforecasters’ latest views on the fiscal stimulus legislation, as well as the 2020 US national elections.
A Superforecaster observes:
No deal this week. Republicans will have to come a lot closer to the House Democrats to get one. Splitting the bill is a non-starter. In the end, Pelosi should get much of what she wants, but it’s also possible that the Republicans will walk away from the table and gamble that voters will blame “both sides.”
Despite the high odds the Superforecasters collectively assign to a Democratic win, the lessons of 2016 are front of mind:
GOP is working the back scenes just in case this is close. If it’s close, it’ll likely make Gore/Bush look easy. And it is now getting closer in key states. R’s are just as motivated as D’s, and better organized. R’s will come out in larger percentage of their voters than D’s too, they always do. So Biden polling 3-4% more in a state isn’t a good sign for him.
It all comes down to who wins the Senate. And that depends who wins the White House, in this Superforecaster’s view:
In the Democrats’ favor is the fact that, in this highly polarized era, the party that wins a given state’s electoral votes almost always wins the Senate races, as well. ….
A 49-seat Democratic minority is the floor. A 57-seat majority is the ceiling. The most likely result (P=75%) is a Democratic majority of 50-53 seats.
How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the results for all closed COVID Recovery questions on our public scoreboard.
To date, two “reopening metrics” questions have closed (Disney Magic Kingdom and Major League Baseball). The Superforecasters displayed early insight and impressive accuracy on both.
Our scoring page also compares their forecasts to other publicly available data.
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