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With COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, several sectors of the economy worldwide are looking to recover from the fallout caused by the pandemic. We ask Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters to forecast when air travel in the US will begin to return to normal, whether the 2021 Tokyo Olympics will take place, and what we can expect in terms of GDP and unemployment indicators as recovery begins.
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Our public dashboards feature a small sample of our probability forecasts. We update these forecasts at 7am EST daily and include regular reports summarizing the trends. If you cannot find a report you are interested in, learn more about FutureFirst.
With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. Before the coronavirus hit, the figure of 1.4 million or more travelers per day had been the norm, according to the TSA Traveler Throughput. Judging by the pace of vaccinations and taking into account other recovery parameters, Superforecasters see a return to “normal” well before 2022.
The Times published a bombshell report in January that Japan’s government had privately decided to cancel the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga flatly denied it. What is the probability that Japan’s rollout of vaccines and other factors will enable the Games to begin as scheduled?
A growth of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters’ top probability for the resolution of this question. However, slow vaccine rollout, especially in Europe, and lockdowns at the start of 2021 are some of the factors the Superforecasters considered in assigning a 21% probability that the world’s GDP may fall within 4% below the 2019 level. This forecast has been created for The Economist’s “The World in 2021.”
Detailed reports on US and eurozone GDP outlook in the second quarter of 2021 are available on FutureFirst.
The UK’s relative success with its ongoing vaccination program may be good news for businesses, but Superforecasters note the national lockdown is expected to continue at least until the second week of March. A substantial proportion of the working population will not have been vaccinated before summer. Superforecasters see the highest probability (currently 80%) that the percentage of working adults who work from home exclusively will be 10%-20% of the workforce as of 1 July 2021. This forecast has been created for The Economist’s “The World in 2021.”
Reports on US employment outlook can be found on FutureFirst.
How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the scores for all closed questions on our public scoreboard. As of 8 February, 20 of the questions on our Public Dashboard have resolved. The average Brier score for our aggregate Superforecasts over the 20 questions is 0.32 on a 0 to 2 scale, where 0 represents perfect prescience.
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