COVID Recovery Dashboard

How rapidly will the world recover from the COVID pandemic?

Good Judgment's Superforecasters bring their diverse perspectives and formidable analytical skills to bear on the questions that are top of mind for business leaders and policymakers who are navigating these uncertain waters.

This week’s featured forecast on our COVID Recovery dashboard:

Two steps forward, how many steps back?

The Magic Kingdom reopened to visitors. Major League Baseball started its long-delayed regular season. But Disney World is already cutting back hours, and MLB has postponed several games due to COVID outbreaks. All of which makes us wonder: Will the pandemic be sufficiently under control to permit the Tokyo Olympics to be held in 2021?

Check back often – we update our probability forecasts daily at 7am EDT, refresh commentary periodically, and launch new questions almost every week.

Pharma forecast updates

Headlines focus on possible FDA approval of one or more vaccines this year. Our question to the Superforecasters asks about widespread distribution of a vaccine. On that point, they’re skeptical about anything happening this year. They also see Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) rather than full FDA approval as being the most likely outcome for the various therapies under consideration.

US 2020 Election Forecasts

Progress on a fiscal stimulus package stalled last week, leading President Trump to take executive action on temporary measures. When will a major stimulus package pass? And how will dysfunction in Washington impact the November elections?

Below, we share the Superforecasters’ latest views on the fiscal stimulus legislation, as well as the 2020 US national elections.

#We Keep Score

How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the results for all closed COVID Recovery questions on our public scoreboard.

To date, two “reopening metrics” questions have closed (Disney Magic Kingdom and Major League Baseball). The Superforecasters displayed early insight and impressive accuracy on both.

Our scoring page also compares their forecasts to other publicly available data.

Additional COVID Recovery Forecasts

Click on any of the short descriptions below to view forecasts and Superforecaster commentary.

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