Will the US raise its top corporate tax? What will be the US federal minimum wage? We highlight these Superforecasts on our Public Dashboard and continue our outstanding forecasting on COVID-19-related questions.
Our public dashboards feature a small sample of our probability forecasts. Some questions are rotated onto the public dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For unlimited subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
Professional Superforecasters see a 93% probability (as of 27 April 2021) that the Democrat-controlled Senate will increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21% before 2023. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, they represent only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.
The US Senate rejected a proposed federal minimum wage hike to $15 per hour from the current $7.25 per hour as part of the budget bill. However, proponents are pursuing other strategies to arrive at a compromise. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters currently see a low probability that the federal minimum wage will be set to $15 or more. A compromise within the $10-$14 range is more likely (63% probability as of 27 April 2021).
Close to one billion COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered worldwide, with a quick increase in the daily rate of inoculations since the launch of this question in February 2021. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters are looking at the questions of production, distribution, and willingness to be vaccinated as the key drivers that will determine the outcome of this question. They see the world on track to administer 1.5 billion doses before July.
The spread of COVID-19 caused a sharp drop in air travel in 2020. Airlines in the United States are now looking to recover. The Superforecasters compare current trends with those of 2020 and 2019 and account for risks, vaccination progress, pent-up and seasonal demand, business travel, and other factors. They see air travel on track to return to the 1.4 million level well before 2022.
The number of new cases is growing in the US despite the ongoing vaccination efforts. There are also concerns about new variants and vaccine hesitancy. Nevertheless, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters say the worst may now be over for the United States, unless a dangerous new variant emerges. They assign a 74% probability in total (as of 27 April 2021) that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022 will be at 50,000 at most, with a slight edge to the “fewer than 20,000” answer option (43% probability).
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