In their annual publication previewing the year ahead, “The World Ahead 2022,” The Economist featured a full page of Good Judgment’s Superforecasts. FutureFirst subscribers have unlimited access to all those forecasts, with updated probability values and commentary. We also offer a glimpse into some of the questions posed to professional Superforecasters on our public dashboard. Will 2022 see a surge in US air travel? When will supply chain bottlenecks in US West Coast ports get resolved? These and other forecasts, including on the global spread of Covid-19 this winter, are available below for a limited period.
Our public dashboards feature a small sample of our probability forecasts. Some questions are rotated onto the public dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For unlimited subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
According to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, US air travel is 98% likely to return to the levels seen in December 2019 before October 2022. Pent-up demand and the flexibility afforded by work-from-home trends are some of the factors contributing to this forecast. On the other hand, in addition to a newly discovered variant of Covid-19, the Superforecasters also observe staffing shortages that several airlines are experiencing and point out that business travel is still muted.
This question was developed in collaboration with The Economist.
Supply chain issues continue to overwhelm US ports, with US West Coast ports having reported an all-time high backlog of cargo ships as of late October. According to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, the base rate for “dwell time” of more than five days for the month of September is about 4-5.0% and there are measures being introduced to reduce the present backlog back down to that level. The Superforecasters see a 92% probability (as of 28 November) the percentage of truck-bound containers that remain in terminals for more than five days at US West Coast ports in September 2022 will be lower than 9.0%.
According to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, it is almost certain that 10 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses will be administered worldwide before May 2022 (99% probability in total). With more than 7.8 billion doses given already, the world could reach the next milestone thanks to an increased supply directed to poorer countries, the availability of booster shots, and the approval of the vaccine for younger children.
This question was inspired by an earlier collaboration with The Financial Times.
When can we expect the global pandemic to be over? Not any time soon, according to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters. The Superforecasters are looking at the issues of testing and reporting, and vaccine hesitancy, and see a growing probability (29% as of 30 November) that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the world between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022 will exceed 800,000.
As older and at-risk groups are prioritized in vaccine programs worldwide, a drop in the number of Covid-19-related deaths can be expected. However, a significant decline may not happen until later in spring 2022, according to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters.
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