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Will electric vehicle sales increase this year? What will be the US federal minimum wage? We highlight these Superforecasts on our Public Dashboard and continue our outstanding forecasting on COVID-19-related questions.
Our public dashboards feature a small sample of our probability forecasts. Some questions are rotated onto the public dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For unlimited subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
The US Senate rejected a proposed federal minimum wage hike to $15 per hour from the current $7.25 per hour; however, proponents are pursuing other strategies to arrive at a compromise. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters currently see a low probability that the federal minimum wage will be set to $15 or more. A compromise within the $10-$14 range is more likely, and so is no increase before 3 January 2023.
Global sales of electric cars accelerated in 2020 despite the pandemic, and environmental and sustainability concerns continue to bring the potential of such vehicles into the spotlight. The Superforecasters as a group expect the percentage of electric vehicle sales to grow to more than 5% of global light vehicle sales in 2021, driven by a strong demand from China and the Biden administration’s policies. How far a vehicle can travel before it needs to be recharged, the production of batteries and materials, and global work from home trends also contribute to the overall picture.
The daily rate of inoculations has picked up pace. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters are looking at such factors as production, distribution, and willingness to be vaccinated as the key drivers that will determine the outcome of this question. With the production of the existing vaccines ramping up and with other vaccines expected to become available soon, the Superforecasters are near certain that 1.5 billion doses worldwide will be administered by July.
More than half of adults in the UK have received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Supply issues such as shipment delays and potential EU export restrictions persist, but the Superforecasters as a group see the UK on track to having vaccinated 35 million people in the UK as of 30 April. Even if the timeline slips, this milestone will be reached by the end of June, according to their forecast.
The Superforecasters see the US on track to distribute enough doses for 200 million people before July 2021. Johnson & Johnson has received emergency use approval for their vaccine, while Pfizer and Moderna have agreed to increase and expedite supply. The Superforecasters cite these and other factors in their reasoning, including production estimates, US Chief Medical Advisor Fauci’s comments, and President Biden’s plan to ramp up vaccine administration capabilities. This question was developed in collaboration with the Economist.
How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the scores for closed questions on our public scoreboard.
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