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Will the US raise its top corporate tax and, if so, when? Will the US be able to reach “herd immunity” through vaccinations? What will the pandemic look like for the world this summer? We highlight these Superforecasts on our Public Dashboard this month.
Our public dashboards feature a small sample of our probability forecasts. Some questions are rotated onto the public dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For unlimited subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated he would like to have the corporate tax rate increased to 28% from the current 21%. Several lawmakers have signalled they would support a smaller increase, namely to 25%. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters consider the ongoing negotiations, statements from key politicians, and the election cycle to assign a 72% probability (as of 18 May) that legislation raising the top federal corporate tax rate in the US will become law by the end of September.
Global sales of electric cars accelerated in 2020 despite the pandemic, signaling the growing interest of drivers in clean transport options. Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to bring the potential of such vehicles into the spotlight. The Superforecasters as a group expect the percentage of electric vehicle sales to grow to at least 6% of global light vehicle sales in 2021, driven by a strong demand from China and the Biden administration’s policies (92% probability in total as of 18 May). How far a vehicle can travel before it needs to be recharged, the production of batteries and materials, and global work from home trends also contribute to the overall picture.
If 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, when will the US reach this threshold? Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters as a group see an 83% probability this will not happen before spring 2022 (as of 18 May). Vaccine supply and logistics are no longer the stumbling block. What the US may lack, the Superforecasters say, is the motivation among some population groups to get vaccinated. The Superforecasters point out, however, that new spikes in infections, requirement of vaccination for college, sporting events, etc., or a creative incentive policy from the federal or local governments could overturn this trend.
The future of COVID-19 is an open question, with a “fourth wave” underway in some countries. Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters point out that only about 5% of the world population have been fully vaccinated. It’s a close race between new variants and vaccine rollout in many countries. Another major determinant is vaccine efficacy against existing and yet-to-emerge mutations. The Superforecasters are also looking at the issues of testing and reporting, the situation in India, and vaccine hesitancy, and see an 85% probability (as of 18 May) that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world between 21 April 2021 and 30 September 2021 will not exceed 900,000.
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