Public Dashboard

What do the Superforecasters predict?

Good Judgment's public dashboard shares the Superforecasters' perspectives on the questions that are top of mind for business leaders and policymakers.

This week’s featured Superforecasts on our public dashboard:

The stakes are higher than ever with a Supreme Court vacancy officially in play. We’ve added two election-related questions that capture the Superforecasters’ views about voter turnout – which they expect to be high by US standards – and when a presidential campaign will concede defeat in the election (it’s not worth losing sleep in hopes of catching a concession speech on Election Night).

Several of our US politics forecasts shifted this week, reflecting rapid developments in light of Justice Ginsburg’s death.

And, more bad news about the AstraZeneca trial is just one factor leading the Superforecasters to become more pessimistic about the likelihood of wide distribution of an FDA-approved vaccine in the next two quarters.

We update our probability forecasts daily at 7am EDT, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often.

More US election and politics forecasts

Pharma update

Confused by the up-and-down news flow on the prospects for a COVID vaccine? Consider this advice from Oxford’s Stefan Schubert: “Reading superforecasters gives a much better overview of the aggregate evidence. News gives you snapshots of single pieces of evidence, sensationalised to generate clicks.”

This week is a great case-in-point, with several Superforecasters taking a close look at recently released information from vaccine manufacturers about their clinical trials. Our highly numerate Superforecaster crowd found multiple causes for concern that drove down the aggregate probability of a Q420/Q121 outcome.

#We Keep Score

How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the scores for all closed COVID Recovery questions on our public scoreboard.

To date, five “reopening metrics” questions have closed, including this week’s closings for the German Bundesliga’s resumption of playing in front of live spectators and the New York City public school system’s resumption of in-person instruction for some students. The average Brier score for our aggregate Superforecasts over the five questions is an impressive 0.0951 on a 0 to 2 scale, where 0 represents perfect prescience.

Additional COVID Recovery Forecasts

Click on any of the short descriptions below to view forecasts and Superforecaster commentary.

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