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Will US President Joe Biden have a second term in 2025? Can the Democrats hold on to their slim House majority in 2022? How many COVID-19 cases and deaths are we going to see this winter?
Good Judgment’s Public Dashboard features a small sample of our probability forecasts. Some questions are rotated onto the Public Dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For unlimited subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president. Does this imply increased odds that he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment’s Superforecasters assign a 7% probability in total to this outcome. They also see a 2-in-3 chance that Biden will be a one-term president.
Traditionally, midterm elections are won by the party not holding the presidency, but elections in recent years suggest this might be a close-run affair. According to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, Democrats have a better chance of winning a Senate majority, while Republicans should do better in the House (64% probability as of 15 September). The Superforecasters also see a 20% probability that Republicans will control both the House and Senate.
As older and at-risk groups are prioritized in vaccine programs worldwide, a drop in the number of COVID-19-related deaths can be expected. However, a significant decline may not happen until later in spring 2022, according to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters. They see a 97% probability in total (as of 15 September) that the highest seven-day median of daily new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the world this winter will exceed 7,000.
When can we expect the global pandemic to be over? Not any time soon, according to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters. The Superforecasters are also looking at the issues of testing and reporting, and vaccine hesitancy, and see a 92% probability that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022 will be between 400,000 and 800,000.
If 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, according to some studies, when will the US reach this threshold? Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters as a group see a 97% probability (as of 15 September) this will not happen before spring 2022. Vaccine supply and logistics are no longer the stumbling block. What the US may lack, the Superforecasters say, is the motivation among some population groups to get vaccinated. The Superforecasters point out, however, that new spikes in infections, requirement of vaccination for college, sporting events, etc., or a creative incentive policy from the federal or local governments could cause their forecast to change.
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