T minus one week and counting …
All eyes are on next week’s US elections. Record-breaking numbers of Americans have already cast ballots, yet there is still plenty of time – and plenty of votes remaining to be cast – for the outcome to swing in favor of either of the major parties. You may want to check back daily to see how the Superforecasts on the Presidential race and control of Congress are evolving.
We update our probability forecasts at 7am EDT daily, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often.
Will seniors stick with President Trump? This Superforecaster® sees the over-65 vote as the key uncertainty on which the election’s outcome may depend.
COVID fear has been a big driver of seniors flipping their reported preference away from Republicans and President Trump and toward Democrats and [former Vice President Biden]. This swing in preference is so huge … that the election will likely hinge on whether these voters have been telling the truth to pollsters and will actually switch their vote to the Democrats. if they vote Republican (as this demographic has for decades), then I don’t think Biden will win.
View today’s forecasts and more Superforecaster commentary >>
As the Presidency goes, so goes the Senate? Here’s how one Superforecaster handicaps the Senate races:
Democrats: 45 on RCP, AZ & MI almost certain, ME & MN very likely
Then they need both:
– Presidency (very likely)
– NC (likely)
There are a few backup options for NC, but it wouldn’t be crazy if Republicans ran the table (especially if Democratic turnout drops in any Georgia runoffs).
View today’s forecasts and more Superforecaster commentary >>
With the Senate adjourned, a pre-election stimulus deal seems all but dead. The Superforecasters haven’t fully written off a deal before the end of the calendar year, however:
Call me an optimist, but I think the odds of an interregnum deal are on the rise (as the odds of blue wave remain high towards the close). Think a pre-election deal all but gone for multiple reasons.
This comment provides context for Superforecasts that see an election-week concession as highly improbable:
Looking again at how long it took to finalize primary results mid-March onwards:
Twenty-three states took an average of 4 days;
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin took roughly six days;
Georgia 10 days;
New York took weeks to resolve two congressional Democratic primaries.
Despite high early-vote tallies, the Superforecasters still see ways in which turnout could fall short of breaking records:
Not all mail in votes will be counted … COVID-19 and weather could still be downside risks.
Following the FDA’s full approval of Remdesivir as a COVID treatment, we have closed and scored the treatment question from our public Superforecasts. We continue our vaccine forecasting.
Reminder: The framing of our featured COVID vaccine forecasting question changed recently; however, we’re continuing to report forecasts on the prior question as well so that you can see how the probabilities have evolved over time.
View today’s forecasts on the original vaccine question here >>
There has been little change in the forecast over the past week. But the Superforecasters are keeping their eyes on possible shifts in the FDA’s approach to vaccine approval:
It’s nothing beyond rumors at this point but it’s a believable rumor: the FDA may be not so keen on EUA for the new SARS-2 vaccines. www.statnews.com/2020/10/23/fda-shows-signs-of-cold-feet-over-emergency-authorization-of-covid-19-vaccines/
How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the scores for all closed questions on our public scoreboard.
As of October 27th, nine of the questions on our Public Dashboard have resolved. The average Brier score for our aggregate Superforecasts over the nine questions is 0.2179 on a 0 to 2 scale, where 0 represents perfect prescience.
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