In 2011, IARPA—the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA—launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP)—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
Good Judgment Inc is now making this winning approach to harnessing the wisdom of the crowd available for commercial use. Our clients benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made the Good Judgment Project so successful.
Today, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters deliver unparalleled accuracy on forecasting questions across the political, economic and social spectrum. And, we train others to apply this evidence-based methodology within their own teams.
One Good Judgment Project discovery has captured more attention than all others: the Superforecasters.
GJP research found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes—even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training. We call these people Superforecasters. Over the four years of the IARPA forecasting tournament and across hundreds of questions, they demonstrated a ratio of skill vs. luck that rivals professional athletes. Since the conclusion of government research in 2015, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters have beaten every challenger they’ve faced.
Our cofounder, Philip Tetlock, profiled several of these talented forecasters in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. He described the attributes they share—including open-minded thinking and a conviction that forecasting is a skill to be cultivated, rather than merely an inborn aptitude.
Today, Good Judgment maintains a global network of elite Superforecasters who collaborate to tackle our clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. We continue to grow this network by identifying and recruiting fresh talent from our public forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. And, we train others to apply the methods that make our Superforecasters so accurate.
Not everyone can be a Superforecaster®. But, almost everyone who is willing to invest the necessary time and effort can become much better at forecasting. That’s good news for those who must make decisions in an increasingly complex world—in short, for everyone!
“A company that is right three times out of five on its judgment calls is going to have an ever-increasing edge on a competitor that gets them right only two times out of five.”
HBR, Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s JudgmentSchedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.