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Superforecaster and theme park producer JuliAnn Blam has had a globe-trotting career. In this interview with Good Judgment, she discusses her path toward becoming a Superforecaster and her favourite aspect of forecasting—the process of diving deep into new subjects and bringing her own perspective to the analysis.
Alice Dorman, who grew up in Europe, qualified as a Superforecaster through the Good Judgment Project in 2015. Self-described as “a bit of a news junkie,” she talks about the skills and strategies she finds useful in her forecasting and offers practical tips to those starting out as forecasters.
Robert de Neufville qualified as a Superforecaster through the Good Judgment Project in 2014. He holds degrees in government and political science from Harvard and Berkeley and has an extensive experience in analyzing existential risk. He is also the author of “Telling the Future” on Substack and a co-host of NonProphets: (Super)forecasting Podcast. He shares his approach to forecasting questions, his tips for new forecasters, and his list of great books he keeps coming to when thinking about conflict and politics.
When Jean-Pierre Beugoms joined the Good Judgment Project (GJP) back in 2011, he had a disadvantage: The forecasting tournament was already underway, halfway through its first year, and clear leaders had already emerged among the participants. Jean-Pierre doesn’t shy away from challenges. He worked his way up the leaderboard to become one of the first ever group of GJP superforecasters. Now a professional Superforecaster with Good Judgment Inc, Jean-Pierre is featured in a new book by bestselling author and Wharton’s top-rated professor Adam Grant, Think Again. We’ve asked him about his outstanding track record in election forecasting, the importance of questioning assumptions, and tips for people who want to improve their forecasting skills.
Kjirste Morrell’s track record is stellar. She is consistently at or near the top among all Good Judgment’s Superforecasters on accuracy measures. This is all the more impressive considering these professionals as a group are already incredibly accurate in their predictions. Yet, when Kjirste, a mechanical engineer with a PhD from MIT, first joined the Good Judgment Project in 2014-2015, geopolitical forecasting (the main subject of GJP) didn’t seem an obvious fit. Today she is esteemed by her colleagues and featured in a new book by bestselling author and Wharton’s top-rated professor Adam Grant, Think Again. Read about her journey to Superforecasting®, the joy of discovering different ways to think about something, and tips for people who want to improve their forecasting and decision-making skills.
In the first of our new series of Superforecaster Profiles, Good Judgment interviews Dan Mayland, geopolitical forecaster extraordinaire and author of the recently published novel The Doctor of Aleppo as well as the Mark Sava series of spy thrillers. Dan provides insights on his research process for both novels and forecasts, discusses his views on the prospects for peace in the Middle East, and shares some news about his latest work-in-progress.
Bryan Walsh, Axios
The bottom line: We depend on experts who often have a vested interest in their predictions. Superforecasting offers an empirically grounded alternative at a moment when the future feels more uncertain than ever.
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