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FutureFirst™, Good Judgment’s exclusive monitoring tool, gives you 24/7 access to forecasts to help you quantify risk, improve judgment, and make decisions.
Our global network of professional Superforecasters separates the signal from the noise, saving you time and money.
Forecasts are updated daily and displayed alongside historical forecast trends and regular reports with Superforecaster commentary. Extend your research team with our Superforecasters, the best in the business at generating accurate, early information on the topics you care most about.
|•||Enhance risk management with near real-time monitoring of uncertain events|
|•||Identify and capitalize on opportunities earlier and with greater confidence|
|•||Track topics that matter most to them on a tailored watchlist|
|•||Pose their own topical questions to the Superforecasters for customized insights|
To see a sample of the FutureFirst probability forecasts, visit the Public Dashboard.
“Team Good Judgment, led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, beat the control group by more than 50%. This is the largest improvement in judgmental forecasting accuracy observed in the literature.”Steven Rieber, Program Manager, IARPA
An independent analysis by the MAN Institute revealed that investors who follow our COVID-19 vaccine availability forecasts could have anticipated a 5% downturn in the market for a basket of COVID-sensitive stocks with more than two weeks’ advance warning. Their conclusion: “If there is one thing better than the wisdom of the crowds, it is the wisdom of well-informed crowds.” The Superforecasters are that crowd.
An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.
|☑||Unrivaled accuracy on the future|
|☑||Precise probability values with context|
|☑||Cutting-edge crowd-sourcing tools|
|☑||Early indicators to take action sooner|
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.