Good Judgment’s public Superforecasts about when a COVID vaccine will be widely distributed have captured attention from Wall Street to Main Street. The MAN Group now suggests that these Superforecasts can serve as a leading market indicator of how shares in “firms exposed to an extension of the pandemic” will perform.
On 8 September 2020, the Superforecasters estimated a 71% chance that there would be enough FDA-approved vaccine available to vaccinate 25 million people sometime in Q4 ’20 or Q1 ’21. Over the next two weeks, their probability forecast for that same outcome dropped quickly down to 54%.
Investors who followed our vaccine forecast had an opportunity to anticipate the market. The Goldman Sachs Health Risk Basket of airline, casino, hotel, and cruise stocks dropped around five percentage points, but not until 21 September, well after the Superforecasters signaled their increased pessimism about the timing of a vaccine.
The story in “View from the Floor” concludes: “if there is one thing better than the wisdom of the crowds, it is the wisdom of well-informed crowds.” The Superforecasters are that crowd.
The Arab Strategy Forum turned to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters for insights on global and regional trends for the next decade. Their forecasts make fascinating reading.
An innovator in the food industry worked with Good Judgment to turn its scenarios around alternative proteins into a first-of-its-kind index of future food trends.
Learn more »A Sovereign Wealth Fund wanted to enhance the Fund's internal forecasting capabilities so that it can deliver better returns for its country's future. Good Judgment provided a customized combination of training and practice on Good Judgment Open.
Learn more »Good Judgment worked with the Center for New American Security on a “case study [that] examined how [the Department of State’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL)] used Good Judgment Inc.’s forecasting reports to inform its decisions on how to support Colombia in its eradication of illicit coca crops.” The authors discovered that the “predictive approach to agility provides decisionmakers with rigorous and regularly updated predictions of the costs and benefits associated with competing decisions.”
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