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Superforecasting Case Studies

Learn how Good Judgment's clients have harnessed the power of Superforecasting® to make better decisions.

“The Market Has Caught Up with the Superforecasters”

Good Judgment’s public Superforecasts about when a COVID vaccine will be widely distributed have captured attention from Wall Street to Main Street. The MAN Group now suggests that these Superforecasts can serve as a leading market indicator of how shares in “firms exposed to an extension of the pandemic” will perform.

On 8 September 2020, the Superforecasters estimated a 71% chance that there would be enough FDA-approved vaccine available to vaccinate 25 million people sometime in Q4 ’20 or Q1 ’21. Over the next two weeks, their probability forecast for that same outcome dropped quickly down to 54%.

Investors who followed our vaccine forecast had an opportunity to anticipate the market. The Goldman Sachs Health Risk Basket of airline, casino, hotel, and cruise stocks dropped around five percentage points, but not until 21 September, well after the Superforecasters signaled their increased pessimism about the timing of a vaccine.

The story in “View from the Floor” concludes: “if there is one thing better than the wisdom of the crowds, it is the wisdom of well-informed crowds.” The Superforecasters are that crowd.

Read the full MAN Institute story >>

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