Ms. Murray was Project Manager for the Good Judgment Project at UC–Berkeley. Previously, she founded a consulting firm specializing in telecommunications and energy policy and was a division director at the California Public Utilities Commission.
Dr. Hatch, a CFA charterholder and Superforecaster, came to Good Judgment from McAlinden Research Partners. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.
Mr. Wayrynen was the lead developer for the Good Judgment Project’s prediction poll platform. As the founder of MMC Software, he created collaborative work environments.
Mr. Koehler, a Superforecaster, heads government relations and facilitates workshops. Previously, he served multiple tours as an American diplomat in US embassies in Asia and Europe, as well as in the White House, Pentagon, and State Department.
Ms. Zeng is Good Judgment’s Contracts Officer, and handles legal, compliance, and related administrative matters for the company. She is a member of the New York State Bar Association.
Winner of the 2016 Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory and Behavioral Economics, Dr. Chen develops Good Judgment’s training and forecaster feedback content. As a post doc with the Good Judgment Project, she led development of the online training platform that produced up to 11% improvements in forecasting accuracy.
Ms. Ball coordinates operations and is one of our question-team leads, reprising a role she played in the Good Judgment Project. She previously worked as a program coordinator at the Council on Foreign Relations and also has been a high school teacher in Japan.
Mr. Hatch leads Good Judgment’s Superforecaster® Analytics product. He has extensive public and private sector experience: after serving on Capitol Hill, in the Office of the Secretary at the Department of Treasury, and as Deputy Mayor for Salt Lake City, Mr. Hatch spent 7 years on Wall Street.
Dr. McCullough, a Superforecaster, manages Staffcasting Programs and facilitates workshops. He also heads government operations for Good Judgment. His more than 22 years of project-management experience in the academic and commercial sectors include directing multi-disciplinary investigations of submerged cultural resources in North America and abroad.
Ms. Patterson, a Superforecaster, is Good Judgment’s representative in the Asia-Pacific region. She is responsible for product development and consulting engagements. Ms. Patterson has over 15 years of management consulting experience, helping companies in Europe, the UK, the US, and Australia improve performance.
Mr. Story, a Superforecaster, is Good Judgment’s representative in Europe. He also leads Good Judgment’s training workshop offering and helps to manage our business development efforts.
Mrs. Weidner, a specialist in international relations, is Project Manager for a Good Judgment team supporting government R&D efforts and a member of Good Judgment’s question team. She is an F-15E instructor in the US Air Force Reserves and has served as an Assistant Officer on the Department of Defense Joint Staff.
Mr. Adler, a Superforecaster, is Project Manager for the Finance Forecasting Challenge hosted by the CFA® Societies of the Western US on Good Judgment Open. He also works with Good Judgment’s question team, capitalizing on his legal training and extensive experience with municipal finance.
Mr. Bennett is Good Judgment’s lead developer for client-facing dashboards, as well as our primary point of contact for media clients and press inquiries. Prior to joining Good Judgment, he developed Podia, a mobile and web application for collaborative Q&A in large college courses.
Mr. Rescober leads Good Judgment’s data-science operations. As a Good Judgment Project analyst, he studied prediction markets. Mr. Rescober is a former Federal Reserve Board researcher and was a research assistant for Philip Tetlock’s book Expert Political Judgment.
Mr. Urtubey, a Superforecaster, is Good Judgment’s representative in Latin America and an expert in developing rigorous and relevant forecasting questions. As a researcher in the FAPERJ/Columbia University Cooperation Program ( FAPERJ) and in the CNPq-MIT Cooperation Program (CNPq), he studied the political economy and governance of the oil and gas sector in Brazil.
Good Judgment’s Certified Superforecasters have decades of collective experience in assigning well-calibrated, accurate probability forecasts to complex geopolitical, economic, public health, and technology outcomes. They live and work on six continents and are fluent in several languages.
Our Superforecasters draw on a rich variety of professional expertise, including finance, political science, and intelligence analysis; science, engineering, and technology; and architecture and city planning. Plus law, pharmacology, graphic design, and much more. While their backgrounds are diverse, they are all open‐minded thinkers with a singular focus at Good Judgment: making accurate forecasts.