About > Our Team

Global presence. Global perspective.

Great forecasters consider each question from multiple vantage points.
Our team similarly brings their diverse experience and expertise to bear on a common cause.

Good Judgment’s Management Team

  • Warren Hatch

    CEO

    Warren Hatch

    CEO

    Dr. Hatch, a CFA charterholder and Superforecaster, came to Good Judgment from McAlinden Research Partners. Previously, he co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley.

  • David Wayrynen

    Chief Technology Officer

    David Wayrynen

    Chief Technology Officer

    Mr. Wayrynen was the lead developer for the Good Judgment Project’s prediction poll platform. As the founder of MMC Software, he created collaborative work environments.

  • Marc Koehler

    Vice President

    Marc Koehler

    Vice President

    Mr. Koehler, a Superforecaster, heads government relations and leads our Workshop product. Previously, he served multiple tours as an American diplomat in US embassies in Asia and Europe, as well as in the White House, Pentagon, and State Department.

  • Anna Zeng

    Chief Legal Officer

    Anna Zeng

    Chief Legal Officer

    Ms. Zeng is Good Judgment’s Contracts Officer, and handles legal, compliance, and related administrative matters for the company. She is a member of the New York State Bar Association.

  • Terry L. Murray

    Senior Advisor

    Terry L. Murray

    Senior Advisor

    Ms. Murray is a co-founder and CEO Emeritus of Good Judgment Inc. She advises Good Judgment’s management team and serves as Chair of its Board of Directors.

    Ms. Murray was Project Manager for the Good Judgment Project at UC–Berkeley. Prior to that, she founded a consulting firm specializing in telecommunications and energy policy and was a division director at the California Public Utilities Commission.

Chief Scientist, Managing Directors, and Directors

  • Eva Chen

    Chief Scientist

    Eva Chen

    Chief Scientist

    Winner of the 2016 Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory and Behavioral Economics, Dr. Chen develops Good Judgment’s training and forecaster feedback content. As a post doc with the Good Judgment Project, she led development of the online training platform that produced up to 11% improvements in forecasting accuracy.

  • Allison Ball

    Managing Director

    Allison Ball

    Managing Director

    Ms. Ball coordinates operations and is one of our question-team leads, reprising a role she played in the Good Judgment Project. She previously worked as a program coordinator at the Council on Foreign Relations and also has been a high school teacher in Japan.

  • Brian Hatch

    Managing Director

    Brian Hatch

    Managing Director

    Mr. Hatch leads Good Judgment’s Superforecaster® Analytics product. He has extensive public and private sector experience: after serving on Capitol Hill, in the Office of the Secretary at the Department of Treasury, and as Deputy Mayor for Salt Lake City, Mr. Hatch spent 7 years on Wall Street.

  • David McCullough

    Managing Director

    David McCullough

    Managing Director

    Dr. McCullough, a Superforecaster, manages Staffcasting Programs and facilitates workshops. He also heads government operations for Good Judgment. His more than 22 years of project-management experience in the academic and commercial sectors include directing multi-disciplinary investigations of submerged cultural resources in North America and abroad.

  • Heron Weidner

    Managing Director

    Heron Weidner

    Managing Director

    Mrs. Weidner, a specialist in international relations, is Project Manager for a Good Judgment team supporting government R&D efforts and a member of Good Judgment’s question team. She is an F-15E instructor in the US Air Force Reserves and has served as an Assistant Officer on the Department of Defense Joint Staff.

  • Ryan Adler

    Director

    Ryan Adler

    Director

    Mr. Adler, a Superforecaster, leads Good Judgment’s question team, capitalizing on his legal training and extensive experience with municipal finance. He also is Project Manager for the Finance Forecasting Challenge hosted by the CFA® Societies of the Western US on Good Judgment Open.

  • Phillip Rescober

    Director

    Phillip Rescober

    Director

    Mr. Rescober leads Good Judgment’s data-science operations. As a Good Judgment Project analyst, he studied prediction markets. Mr. Rescober is a former Federal Reserve Board researcher and was a research assistant for Philip Tetlock’s book Expert Political Judgment.

  • Luis Enrique Urtubey de Césaris

    Director

    Luis Enrique Urtubey de Césaris

    Director

    Mr. Urtubey, a Superforecaster, leads Good Judgment Open, our public forecasting platform. He is also Good Judgment’s representative in Latin America and an expert in developing rigorous and relevant forecasting questions. As a researcher in the FAPERJ/Columbia University Cooperation Program ( FAPERJ) and in the CNPq-MIT Cooperation Program (CNPq), he studied the political economy and governance of the oil and gas sector in Brazil.

Certified Superforecasters

Good Judgment’s Certified Superforecasters have decades of collective experience in assigning well-calibrated, accurate probability forecasts to complex geopolitical, economic, public health, and technology outcomes. They live and work on six continents and are fluent in several languages.

Our Superforecasters draw on a rich variety of professional expertise, including finance, political science, and intelligence analysis; science, engineering, and technology; and architecture and city planning. Plus law, pharmacology, graphic design, and much more. While their backgrounds are diverse, they are all open‐minded thinkers with a singular focus at Good Judgment: making accurate forecasts.

Intrigued?

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions.

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