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Superforecasters identify the most likely outcomes of complex global questions with unparalleled speed—in some cases, hundreds of days earlier than other forecasters—without compromising accuracy.
Succinct summaries highlight key components of the Superforecasters’ analysis and provide a clear picture of the data and factors driving forecasts when probabilities change.
Pose follow-up questions to dig deeper into the reasoning behind the forecasts and receive answers that apply to your organization’s specific needs.
Scale your forecasting capacity with Superforecasters to meet the needs of your decision-makers at a fraction of the cost of expanding an in-house team.
Our public dashboard shares Superforecasters’ latest probability estimates on some of the most pressing questions of the day, such as the timing of a COVID vaccine. Discover the kind of early warning that our Superforecasters could bring to your most pressing concerns.
Clients seeking Superforecaster insights can pose their own questions to the Superforecasters. Good Judgment will help you identify the right questions to inform your decisions. Our expert question team will help frame your mission-critical questions to get the answers you need.
For client-specific questions, Good Judgment recruits a core group of Superforecasters, who commit to working on those questions, before releasing the questions to our entire global Superforecaster network. The Superforecasters post their initial probability estimates on Good Judgment’s private forecasting platform, share their sources and rationales with their colleagues, debate the merits of competing interpretations of the data, and then update their forecasts whenever new information or analysis justifies doing so. Good Judgment keeps score and provides each Superforecaster with ongoing accuracy feedback.
After a few days for initial analysis and testing the question framing, Good Judgment aggregates the Superforecasters' probability judgments using a best-in-class algorithm. We update the aggregated forecasts daily. We also summarize the Superforecasters' commentary and analysis in periodic overview reports that allow you to "see behind the curtain" in a way that is impossible with AI-generated forecasts. Clients can access the daily aggregated forecast update, along with the historical forecast trend and most recent overview report, via an online dashboard.
Superforecasters were the most accurate 2% of thousands of forecasters during government-funded research (2011-2015)
Superforecasters outperformed US intelligence analysts by a reported 30% margin
of challengers beaten since the Superforecasters began offering professional forecasts in 2015
Our subscription Superforecasts provide affordable access to daily probability updates on the topics that are top-of-mind for business and government decision-makers around the world.
They’re grouped in topical packages such as Global Risks and Superforecasting the Fed. You can also create a custom package from the dozens of questions available for subscription.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions.