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Good Judgment maintains a global network of nearly 200 elite Superforecaster professionals who collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy, beating all head-to-head competitors.
The original Superforecasters emerged in a geopolitical forecasting competition funded by the US Intelligence Community. The competition found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning probabilities to uncertain future events. Good Judgment co-founder Philip Tetlock chronicled the Superforecasters’ performance and unique attributes in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Today, the commercial successor Good Judgment Inc is a forecasting consulting firm that provides public and private organizations early insights on real-world events.
While their credentials are diverse, Superforecasters are all open‐minded thinkers with a singular focus at Good Judgment: making accurate forecasts.
Good Judgment uses collaborative forecasting methods that have been scientifically demonstrated to be effective, with forecasters who have been vetted for superior accuracy and whose ongoing performance is tracked and monitored.
While they represent differing areas of subject matter expertise, Superforecasters are recognized for their proficiency in the science of forecasting and their decades of collective experience assigning well-calibrated, accurate probabilities to complex outcomes.
“Team Good Judgment, led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, beat the control group by more than 50%. This is the largest improvement in judgmental forecasting accuracy observed in the literature.”Steven Rieber, Program Manager, IARPA
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.