Resources > The Superforecasters’ Track Record

How accurate are the Superforecasters?

Superforecasters represented the cream of the crop of the Good Judgment Project forecasters. And they’ve proven themselves time and time again since turning professional in 2015. Below, we present data about their track record in both absolute and relative terms.

Superforecasters have beaten all head-to-head competitors

See the future sooner

An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.

Overview of the professional Superforecasters’ performance

Our professional Superforecasters have tackled hundreds of forecasting questions since 2015. The statistics below summarize average performance over the 277 questions that have “resolved” (in other words, questions for which the outcome is known) as of November 13, 2020. For purposes of this analysis, the “correct” outcome means the answer option that actually occurred and resolved the forecasting question.

We’ll update this information periodically as additional questions close.


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