Resources > The Superforecasters’ Track Record

How accurate are the Superforecasters?

Superforecasters represented the cream of the crop of the Good Judgment Project forecasters. And they’ve proven themselves time and time again since turning professional in 2015. Below, we present data about their track record in both absolute and relative terms.

Superforecasters have beaten all head-to-head competitors

The Superforecasters’ Track Record: Interest Rates, Covid-19, and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

A post-mortem exercise is a key step in the Superforecasting process. For every forecast we make, we keep score so we can learn and improve. As an example, we compare the Superforecasters’ track record in forecasting inflection points in the Fed’s policy with futures markets. (Superforecasters were 66% more accurate than the futures.) We look back at Superforecasters’ performance in forecasting the reopening in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. (Superforecasters offered valuable early signal where others failed.) Because we take accountability in forecasting seriously, we’re also sharing our post-mortem for the question whether Russia would invade Ukraine and present lessons learned.

See the future sooner

An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.

Overview of the professional Superforecasters’ performance

Our professional Superforecasters have tackled hundreds of forecasting questions since 2015. The statistics below summarize average performance over the 554 questions that have “resolved” (in other words, questions for which the outcome is known) as of 11 September 2023. For purposes of this analysis, the “correct” outcome means the answer option that actually occurred and resolved the forecasting question.

We’ll update this information periodically as additional questions close.


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