Resources > The Superforecasters’ Track Record

How accurate are the Superforecasters?

Superforecasters represented the cream of the crop of the Good Judgment Project forecasters. And they’ve proven themselves time and again since turning professional in 2015. Below, we present data about their track record in both absolute and relative terms.

Superforecasters have beaten all head-to-head competitors

See the future sooner

An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.

Overview of the professional Superforecasters’ performance

Our professional Superforecasters have tackled hundreds of forecasting questions since 2015. The statistics below summarize average performance over the 277 questions that have “resolved” (in other words, questions for which the outcome is known) as of November 13, 2020. For purposes of this analysis, the “correct” outcome means the answer option that actually occurred and resolved the forecasting question.

We’ll update this information periodically as additional questions close.

Public Superforecasts scoreboard

We’re keeping score on each and every question posted to our public Superforecasts dashboard, which allows you to see more granular detail about a subset of the questions included in the more complete analysis reported above.

Where readily available, we include comparisons to what others were saying on the same forecasting topics. But, unlike the head-to-head competitions described at the top of this page, we don’t always have easy, direct comparisons because the Superforecasters are providing early insight on questions that almost no one else has even attempted to address.

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