Dr. Hatch joined Good Judgment as a volunteer forecaster in the research project sponsored by the US government, became a Superforecaster, and is now CEO of the commercial successor, Good Judgment Inc. His prior career was on Wall Street where he started at Morgan Stanley before co-founding a boutique investment firm. Hatch earned his PhD from Oxford University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst Charterholder.
Mr. Wayrynen is a co-founder of Good Judgment Inc and was the lead developer for the Good Judgment Project’s prediction poll platform. As the founder of MMC Software, he created collaborative work environments from 1985.
Ms. Zeng is Good Judgment’s Contracts Officer, and handles legal, compliance, and related administrative matters for the company. She is a member of the New York State Bar Association.
Ms. Murray is a co-founder and CEO Emeritus of Good Judgment Inc. She advises Good Judgment’s management team and serves as Chair of its Board of Directors.
Ms. Murray was Project Manager for the Good Judgment Project at UC–Berkeley. Prior to that, she founded a consulting firm specializing in telecommunications and energy policy and was a division director at the California Public Utilities Commission.
Winner of the 2016 Exeter Prize for Research in Experimental Economics, Decision Theory and Behavioral Economics, Dr. Chen leads Good Judgment’s decision-science research. She also coordinates Good Judgment’s training and forecaster feedback content development. As a post doc with the Good Judgment Project, she led development of the online training platform that produced up to 11% improvements in forecasting accuracy.
Dr. Karvetski leads Good Judgment’s data-science research and special projects. Through his work as a postdoctoral analyst in the IARPA ACE program and subsequent research programs, he has numerous publications on judgment and decision making. He has extensive data-science experience in financial services and as an independent consultant, tailoring algorithms and analyses for clients with unique research and development needs.
Mr. Rescober leads Good Judgment’s data-science operations. As a Good Judgment Project analyst and data scientist, he studied prediction markets. Mr. Rescober is a former Federal Reserve Board researcher and was a research assistant for Philip Tetlock’s book Expert Political Judgment.
Ms. Ball coordinates operations and is one of our question-team leads, reprising a role she played in the Good Judgment Project. She previously worked as a program coordinator at the Council on Foreign Relations and also has been a high school teacher in Japan.
Mr. Hatch leads Good Judgment’s Superforecaster® Analytics product. He has extensive public and private sector experience: after serving on Capitol Hill, in the Office of the Secretary at the Department of Treasury, and as Deputy Mayor for Salt Lake City, Mr. Hatch spent 7 years on Wall Street.
Mr. Adler, a Superforecaster, leads Good Judgment’s question team, capitalizing on his legal training and extensive experience with municipal finance. He also helps manage our public forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open.
Ms. Devlen has lead responsibility for all Good Judgment content production, including but not limited to reports for our Superforecaster® Analytics product, newsletters, as well as blog and social-media posts. You may also see some of her award-winning photography in our publications. After her start as an editor and reporter in Kyrgyzstan, Lena has had a globe-trotting career, with experience in Turkey, the US, and Denmark before landing most recently in Canada.
Mr. Urtubey, a Superforecaster, leads Good Judgment Open, our public forecasting platform. He is also Good Judgment’s representative in Latin America and an expert in developing rigorous and relevant forecasting questions. As a researcher in the FAPERJ/Columbia University Cooperation Program ( FAPERJ) and in the CNPq-MIT Cooperation Program (CNPq), he studied the political economy and governance of the oil and gas sector in Brazil.
Mr. Koehler, a Superforecaster, served multiple tours as an American diplomat in US embassies in Asia and Europe, as well as in the White House, Pentagon, and State Department.
Mrs. Weidner, a specialist in international relations, is a featured presenter at our Superforecasting® workshops. She is an F-15E instructor in the US Air Force Reserves and has served as an Assistant Officer on the Department of Defense Joint Staff.
Dr. Devlen is a Superforecaster, Professor at Carleton University, and the Head of the Transatlantic Program at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Before moving to Canada as a Macdonald-Laurier Senior Fellow, Dr. Devlen held faculty positions in the US, Turkey, and Denmark. He teaches and writes on foreign policy decision making, great power politics, existential risk, as well as forecasting and strategic foresight.
Trent Hesslink, a retired Naval Officer, brings expertise as an experienced educator in strategy, negotiations, forecasting, and international relations to our Superforecasting workshops as a featured presenter.
Good Judgment’s Certified Superforecasters have decades of collective experience in assigning well-calibrated, accurate probability forecasts to complex geopolitical, economic, legal/regulatory, public health, and technology outcomes. They live and work on six continents and are fluent in numerous languages.
Our Superforecasters draw on a rich variety of professional training and expertise, including finance, statistics, political science, and intelligence analysis; science, engineering, and technology; and architecture and city planning. They hold undergraduate and graduate degrees in fields such as international relations, economics, law, medicine, pharmacology, energy and environmental studies, mathematics, microbiology, cultural anthropology, Russian and Turkic studies, chemical engineering, accounting, and many more. While their backgrounds are diverse, they are all open‐minded thinkers with a singular focus at Good Judgment: making accurate forecasts.
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