Delphineo combines a modified Delphi forecasting method with new techniques from our co-founder Phil Tetlock’s research on how to “make conversations smarter faster.”
Good Judgment has tested this hybrid approach with over 100 groups ranging from a handful to hundreds of people. In almost every instance, groups have achieved “process gain“ − becoming more accurate individually and collectively − in a short time using this multi-purpose yet easy-to-use tool for crowdsourcing forecasts and brainstorming ideas.
Delphineo is a web-based, mobile-friendly collaboration tool.
Participants post anonymous “gists” − short, tweet-like messages. Keeping comments crisp encourages each person to focus on what’s most important. Rapid feedback enhances the time-tested “estimate-talk-estimate” Delphi process.
Below, we outline how Delphineo works in forecasting mode; the steps are similar in brainstorming mode.
First, each participant records his or her initial estimate, along with a brief explanation of the reasons for that forecast. Recording initial views as individuals before seeing what others think maximizes the diversity of perspectives and minimizes the risk of groupthink.
Next, everyone sees the anonymous commentary from each group member. Participants upvote the comments they find most useful.
Then, each person posts an updated forecast that reflects insights gained from reviewing others' comments and analysis.
One "estimate-talk-estimate" cycle is often sufficient to arrive at a strong collective forecast. Repeating the cycle can help to clarify views.
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