After the effective dismantling of USAID, there is heightened uncertainty about the future of global health and continuity of US government’s funding for international health programs from malaria to HIV to vaccines. To contribute to the public discourse on these critical issues, this project, generously supported by GiveWell and Open Philanthropy, presented a series of forecasting questions to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters. Their forecasts and insights are summarized in the reports below.
Between 7 March and 25 March 2025, a group of 24 Superforecasters provided their assessments and rationales on six forecasting questions, which were compiled into these reports. Forecasting on two of the questions, US global health funding and total foreign assistance obligations, will continue for a year with daily updates posted here.
Each report includes a summary table of the aggregated forecasts distributed across five answer options. The forecast data was also converted into a continuous probability distribution in a separate table for additional granularity. Moreover, the reports provide charts, a summary of the background, drivers of the current forecasts, future risks, select quotes, and key sources. See individual reports below or click here to download all as a single consolidated PDF file (993 KB).
Individual Reports
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