Bringing the Wisdom of the Crowd to Help the Early Warning Project

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

Good Judgment Inc (GJI), the Early Warning Project (EWP), and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) are pleased to announce an expanded partnership in 2017-2018. The Early Warning Project Challenge is now open for forecasters on GJ Open.  In the 2016 Early Warning Project Forecasting Challenge on GJ Open, forecasters predicted the likelihood of […]

Forecasting Disaster, Alleviating Suffering

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Superforecasting

Imagine humanitarian aid on the ground, ready to go when (or even ready before) it is most needed. When cold, hungry refugees flee their homes in advance of Taliban fighting in Afghanistan… or when increasingly dangerous storms jeopardize food supplies… or when government and rebel forces clash, risking civilian lives. Anticipatory aid for disasters could […]

Try Your Hand at Forecasting Finance and Economic Questions

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in GJ Open

Good Judgment Inc (GJI) and the CFA Society Los Angeles are launching an exciting new partnership for the members of CFA Society Los Angeles, the wider global CFA community, and those interested in becoming better forecasters in the world of economics and finance. CFA charterholders and other interested parties will have the opportunity to compete […]

Superforecasters Weigh In: To Forecast the First 100 Days, What Should You Be Reading?

Posted on 1 CommentPosted in Superforecasting

One of our most frequently asked questions on Good Judgment Open (GJO) is: “What are the Superforecasters thinking, and reading about this topic?” In The First 100 Days, a forecasting challenge co-sponsored by GJO and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, members of the public are invited to enter their predictions on the Trump Administration’s “First […]

How Trump is Changing Forecasters’ Minds

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in GJ Open

The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many forecasters on GJ Open and around the world. After any forecasting surprise, an aspiring Superforecaster should reflect on why they might have been wrong, which signs they might have missed, and importantly, whether an event signals that they should update their beliefs about […]

“In the News” Challenge Launches on Good Judgment Open

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in GJ Open

Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce “In the News,” its new Forecasting Challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. The Challenge features questions plucked from the headlines, with topics ranging from politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. One of the first timely forecasting opportunities in the […]

Numbers, Not Hype

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in GJ Open

by Andrew Sabisky Mr. Sabisky is a forecaster on Good Judgment Open and a freelance writer. He has written extensively for the International Business Times – UK edition. Mr. Sabisky writes for the “Superforecasting in Action” blog to dive deeply into the perspective of an active GJ Open forecaster.  As Advent progresses, it seems correct, in this […]