Try Your Hand at Forecasting Finance and Economic Questions

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Good Judgment Inc (GJI) and the CFA Society Los Angeles are launching an exciting new partnership for the members of CFA Society Los Angeles, the wider global CFA community, and those interested in becoming better forecasters in the world of economics and finance. CFA charterholders and other interested parties will have the opportunity to compete […]

Superforecasters Weigh In: To Forecast the First 100 Days, What Should You Be Reading?

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One of our most frequently asked questions on Good Judgment Open (GJO) is: “What are the Superforecasters thinking, and reading about this topic?” In The First 100 Days, a forecasting challenge co-sponsored by GJO and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, members of the public are invited to enter their predictions on the Trump Administration’s “First […]

How Trump is Changing Forecasters’ Minds

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The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many forecasters on GJ Open and around the world. After any forecasting surprise, an aspiring Superforecaster should reflect on why they might have been wrong, which signs they might have missed, and importantly, whether an event signals that they should update their beliefs about […]

“In the News” Challenge Launches on Good Judgment Open

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Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce “In the News,” its new Forecasting Challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. The Challenge features questions plucked from the headlines, with topics ranging from politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. One of the first timely forecasting opportunities in the […]

Numbers, Not Hype

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by Andrew Sabisky Mr. Sabisky is a forecaster on Good Judgment Open and a freelance writer. He has written extensively for the International Business Times – UK edition. Mr. Sabisky writes for the “Superforecasting in Action” blog to dive deeply into the perspective of an active GJ Open forecaster.  As Advent progresses, it seems correct, in this […]

Monkey Cage: Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

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You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]

Excerpt from “Krisen vorhersagen und verhindern – eine Gebrauchsanweisung”

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Last week, there was an excellent article on perspective-daily.de with interviews of Philip Tetlock and Superforecasters. The entire article is available in German at: https://perspective-daily.de/article/131/0plZiDeU The following is an excerpt from the article, translated into English: “According to Tetlock, the most prominent feature of a Superforecaster is that he regularly reviews his predictions and the […]

Good Judgment Inc Joins Forces with The Economist to Present “The World in 2017 Forecasting Challenge”

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Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce the launch of a forecasting challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open, tied to The Economist’s World in 2017. The World in 2017, an annual collection of predictions, is a special edition of The Economist which identifies and explores the issues that will shape the year […]

Three Ways Superforecasting™ Enhances Scenario Planning

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  Scenario planning helps organizations make better decisions about long-term, strategic options. Scenarios make alternative futures more salient to decision-makers, while highlighting the uncertainty around which scenario will materialize. Here’s where Good Judgment comes in: Superforecasting can help quantify the uncertainty.  Good Judgment Superforecaster® and management consultant Kate Patterson describes three ways Superforecasting can support […]