Results of the HFC Challenge are In! (HFC Challenge Wrap-Up)

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

The HFC Challenge has wrapped up on Good Judgment Open, and Good Judgment congratulates all HFC Challenge forecasters warmly, as we prepare to begin the official Hybrid Forecasting Competition in March 2018. Featuring over 100 questions over 5 months, the HFC Challenge attracted a total of 1,869 forecasters. HFC Challenge participants forecasted important political and […]

Good Judgment and Arab Strategy Forum Elite Forecasters Challenge 2017 – Top Forecasters Announced

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

Congratulations to the 2017 Elite Forecasters Challenge top forecasters, announced by the Arab Strategy Forum at their annual Forum event on December 11-12, 2017 and on Twitter and Facebook. The Challenge ran from May through November 2017 in both English and Arabic, and nearly 800 volunteer forecasters with ties to 20 Arab countries engaged in […]

HFC Digest

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

So far, data-intensive topics have dominated the HFC Challenge. Have you enjoyed these model-friendly questions? Or do you prefer predicting events with fewer historical analogs? No matter what your preference, the final eight weeks of the HFC Challenge will present many more of your favorite question types to test and hone your forecasting skills! Here […]

Hybrid Forecasting Competition Now Recruiting Volunteer Forecasters

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

“The outcome was clear … the computer won.” In the heat of the 2016 U.S. presidential race, Laura Sydell of NPR deployed an interesting experiment: pitting two pundits (journalists from the left and right) against a computer (designed by a digital analytics firm called “Quid”) to see how each contestant fared in predicting election developments. […]

It’s Official: Superforecasters Have Superior Judgment

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

In November 2013, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported that the “top forecasters [in the Good Judgment Project], drawn from universities and elsewhere, performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.” This tantalizing tidbit – while never denied outright by the US government – […]

Good Judgment Announces Online Forecasting Training

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

Good Judgment is proud to announce the release of its online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. This training conveys fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The exercises are based on years of research into forecasting methodology and touch on the key tools that Good Judgment Superforecasters have used to […]

Mack Institute Challenge Coming Soon to GJ Open!

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management […]

Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in! We asked the following questions: “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?” “When will […]

Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets, Talks Superforecasting

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Superforecasting

by Ben Kantor, Good Judgment Associate “Adapt or die” – Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball Good Judgment loves applying better forecasting and decision making to complex problems. So we get excited to hear about innovative ways forecasting is being applied in the real world. Typically, we work with industry leaders in commercial, […]