Hybrid Forecasting Competition Now Recruiting Volunteer Forecasters

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“The outcome was clear … the computer won.” In the heat of the 2016 U.S. presidential race, Laura Sydell of NPR deployed an interesting experiment: pitting two pundits (journalists from the left and right) against a computer (designed by a digital analytics firm called “Quid”) to see how each contestant fared in predicting election developments. […]

It’s Official: Superforecasters Have Superior Judgment

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In November 2013, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported that the “top forecasters [in the Good Judgment Project], drawn from universities and elsewhere, performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.” This tantalizing tidbit – while never denied outright by the US government – […]

Good Judgment Announces Online Forecasting Training

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Good Judgment is proud to announce the release of its online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. This training conveys fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The exercises are based on years of research into forecasting methodology and touch on the key tools that Good Judgment Superforecasters have used to […]

Mack Institute Challenge Coming Soon to GJ Open!

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A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management […]

Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

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At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in! We asked the following questions: “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?” “When will […]

Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets, Talks Superforecasting

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by Ben Kantor, Good Judgment Associate “Adapt or die” – Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball Good Judgment loves applying better forecasting and decision making to complex problems. So we get excited to hear about innovative ways forecasting is being applied in the real world. Typically, we work with industry leaders in commercial, […]

Top 10 Books Recommended by Superforecasters

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Good Judgment professional Superforecasters are an extraordinary, diverse, and intellectually curious bunch of people. In addition to their shared passion for forecasting, they have a shared passion for debating politics, philosophy and books on our forums. Typically, Superforecasters are expert in their chosen domain, but also tend to be polymaths. When the Superforecasters started debating […]

Elite Forecasters Challenge Now Launched

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The Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment Inc are pleased to welcome the inaugural cohort of approximately 1,000 forecasters to the Elite Forecasters Challenge, an exclusive economic and political forecasting tournament focused primarily on the Arab world. The tournament will run from May to November 2017. Participants will predict political and economic events in the […]

CFA LA Challenge Forecasters Put Low Odds of a Bear Market in U.S. Stocks

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by Warren Hatch President, Good Judgment Inc In a new collaboration, Good Judgment and the CFA Society Los Angeles have joined forces to launch a forecasting challenge on Good Judgment Open. Nearly a thousand forecasters have already picked up the gauntlet to forecast on finance and economics questions that range from interest rates to tax […]