Looking Back at 2023: Good Judgment’s Year of Impact and Innovation

As we start another year at Good Judgment, it’s time to reflect on our achievements in 2023 and the journey ahead for 2024. The past year was a testament to our continued commitment to excellence in forecasting.

Superforecasters’ Track Record and Updates to FutureFirst™

In finance, our Superforecasters outperformed the CME FedWatch Tool by a staggering 66%. They also anticipated the June inflection point in US Federal Reserve policy notably earlier than the futures markets. This success was reported by the New York Times and Financial Times.

Our FutureFirst service expanded in 2023, offering direct subscriptions and specialized forecast channels, including “Superforecasting the Middle East” and “Superforecasting Ukraine.” With daily updates, API access, and dozens of Superforecasts on top-of-mind questions, it’s a comprehensive tool for the future-conscious decision-maker.

Forecasting Services and GJ Open Challenges

We actively engaged with our clients, enabling them to pose 79 new questions to the Superforecasters in 2023. We also launched exciting new challenges on our public forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open, complete with 475 new forecasting questions! Partnerships with industry giants and educational institutions like Harvard Kennedy School have been pivotal in broadening our reach and offered organizations a unique way to spot in-house talent, train interns, and identify trends.

Training Services

Our workshops and the Forecasting Aptitude Screening Tool (FAST) have empowered organizations to refine their forecasting skills and assess their team’s capabilities. An analysis of workshop outcomes released by our data science team showed marked improvement in forecasting accuracy for workshop participants.

Other Highlights

• We made our services more accessible to UK government entities through our partnership with ForgeFront and the UK Government’s Futures Procurement Network.
• We partnered once again with The Economist’s forward-looking publication “The World Ahead 2024,” providing forecasts on crucial questions about the year ahead. The Economist’s editors gave the Superforecasters full marks for their 2023 forecasts published last year (8/8).
• We released the “Superforecasting Power-seeking AI” report, a collaboration with Dr. Joseph Carlsmith, generously supported by Open Philanthropy.

Notable Mentions of Superforecasters in the Media in 2023

• BBC Reel: “Can you learn to predict the future?”
• Financial Times: “Can you predict the year ahead better than Superforecasters?”
• Popular Science: “How a US intelligence program created a team of ‘Superforecasters’”
• The Atlantic: “How and When the War in Ukraine Will End”
• The Economist: “What are the chances of an AI apocalypse?”
• The Economist: “What the superforecasters predict for major events in 2024”
• Financial Times: “The art of superforecasting: how FT readers fared against the experts in 2023”

We’re excited to continue this journey in 2024 and invite you to stay connected through our newsletter. Cheers to a new year filled with insightful forecasts and strategic growth for our partners!