Welcome to the Citadel International Equities Superforecasting Challenge!



Citadel International Equities, a long-running equities business at the world’s most profitable hedge fund manager*, invites you to take part in their Superforecasting Challenge.

Being a successful investor is about making accurate predictions about future events using probabilistic forecasts.

Enter this competition and demonstrate your ability to take in information, analyze data, and determine outcomes—mirroring the curiosity and applied skills of an investment professional. Topics can be about anything, from election results to sports or from environmental to market shifts.

You’ll win a chance to be fast-tracked to interview for a paid internship with Citadel International Equities.

To participate in the Citadel International Equities Superforecasting Challenge, please select the appropriate link below to take the introductory survey.

Existing Good Judgment Open user? Click here.

*Source: LCH Investment NV estimates. Top Hedge Fund Managers by Net Gains Since Inception as of 12/31/2022.


How It Works

In the first four weeks of the tournament, five new forecasting questions will be released each week at approximately 5 pm GMT on Wednesday on the Good Judgment Open portal. All forecasts must be received through the Good Judgment Open portal no later than 11.59 pm GMT on May 30, 2023 to be eligible for challenge consideration.

The fifty (50) participants receiving the highest scores in the challenge will have the opportunity to participate in an accelerated interview process for Citadel’s 2023 London summer internship program. The first step is Citadel’s cognitive aptitude test. Challenge participants will be evaluated based upon the following criteria:

  • Accuracy and speed of forecasts (measured using the relative Brier score)
  • Responsiveness to new data (measured using relative Brier score, and number and speed of updated forecasts)
  • Ability to find insights (evidence that participant considered news and data relevant to the question)
  • Collaboration with others (measured by quality and number of comments and replies on the platform)

To be eligible, you must forecast on at least twenty (20) questions. While everyone is welcome to participate in the challenge, invitations to interview will be granted to full-time undergraduates or graduate students who are enrolled in university during the entire competition and expect to graduate no earlier than January 2024.

Eligible students must fill out the survey to be considered for an internship interview. If you have an existing GJO account, click here. If you are new to GJO, click here.

See the rules here.

Abbreviated Challenge Rules

Challenge Program Period ends at 11:59:59 pm GMT on May 30, 2023. PROGRAM PARTICIPATION DOES NOT GUARANTEE EMPLOYMENT CONSIDERATION. SUBJECT TO FULL TERMS HERE. See Terms for full eligibility and performance metric details. Program offered by Citadel Management (Europe) II Limited 120 London Wall, London EC2Y 5ET. For information about how your data will be used and who it will be shared with if you sign up for this challenge, please visit the Good Judgment Open Privacy Policy and the Citadel Privacy Policy.

About Good Judgment Inc

Good Judgment Inc is the commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project (GJP) founded by Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock. Harnessing the wisdom of the crowd, our clients now benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made GJP so successful.

Our global network of elite Superforecasters collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. We also train others to apply the methods that make our Superforecasters so accurate.

Learn more about Good Judgment here.

About Good Judgment Open

The largest public forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is a crowd forecasting site where you can hone your forecasting skills, learn about the world, and engage with other forecasters. On GJO, you can make forecasts about the likelihood of future events and learn how accurate you were and how your accuracy compares with the crowd. Unlike prediction markets and other forecasting sites, you can share your reasoning with other forecasters to challenge your assumptions.

Join GJO challenges, collections of questions organized by a theme or topic, which are scored for accuracy. Top performers can compete for a chance to become one of Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters.



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