Forecasting Services

Good Judgment Forecasting Services

Alternative data to help investors make better decisions

Being ahead of the crowd gives your firm the inside track on the markets—from new consumer trends to changes in geopolitical risk and shifts in the regulatory environment. Actionable insights on market-moving questions—for example, probability of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine or another lockdown in China—give financial services clients a competitive edge.

Good Judgment offers the most accurate early insight available from our professional Superforecasters through subscription forecasts on questions nominated by users in finance and custom forecasts on your most pressing investment decisions.

Forecasting Services


Access Superforecaster Insights with FutureFirst

A subscription to FutureFirst provides access to the full suite of Good Judgment’s probability forecasts including daily updates and regular Superforecaster commentary presented alongside historical forecast trends.

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Pose Custom Questions to Superforecasters

Superforecasters identify the most likely outcomes of complex global questions with unmatched accuracy and unparalleled speed—in some cases, hundreds of days earlier than other forecasters—with customized forecasts and commentary reports tailored to your organization’s specific concerns.

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How Financial Firms Use FutureFirst

The world’s most innovative organizations use Superforecasting to make better decisions.
Here are examples of the applications for the Superforecasters’ forecasting expertise in the financial space.

  • The MAN Group used COVID-19 vaccine forecasts to identify fundamental changes in market conditions ahead of asset prices. They suggested that these Superforecasts can serve as a leading market indicator of how shares in “firms exposed to an extension of the pandemic” will perform.
  • A UK Alternative Investment Fund Manager uses Superforecasters as an extension of their internal research department, particularly for tracking regulatory, election, and tech sector policy changes.
  • Global Investment Management Firm T. Rowe Price made asset allocation calls by tracking correlated value and cyclical sectors to vaccine distribution.
  • Superforecaster insights informed the Equity Team at Goldman Sachs that vaccine distribution was coming faster than the market had priced in as a basis for asset allocation call to long stocks.
  • A Global Asset Management Firm cited a recent question on Stringency Index scores for Chinese cities as “a very useful tool for us to get an overall sense of the political views and possible future lock-downs in these important cities.”
  • An Asian Macro Strategy Group used FutureFirst to track macro outcomes across the region and globe to guide and enhance security analysis.

Get Started

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

 

More Information on Forecasting Services

Access Superforecaster Insights with FutureFirst

FutureFirst is Good Judgment’s subscription to current Superforecaster aggregated forecasts and commentary for 70+ topical forecasting questions.

A subscription to FutureFirst grants you access to daily probability forecasts and commentary from our global network of highly accurate professional Superforecasters who separate the signal from the noise, saving you time and money. With FutureFirst you can mitigate risk through near real-time monitoring of uncertain events and identify, and capitalize on, opportunities earlier and with greater confidence.

Our clients use FutureFirst to:

  • Enhance risk management with near real-time monitoring of uncertain events
  • Extend their research teams with the forecasting expertise of Superforecasters
  • Identify, and capitalize on, opportunities earlier and with greater confidence
  • Track topics that matter most to them on a tailored watchlist
  • Pose their own topical questions to the Superforecasters for customized insights


FutureFirst Deliverables

In addition to access to all forecasting questions, FutureFirst subscribers receive standard reports, which offer a representative sample of the Superforecaster commentary, notifications of recently closed and upcoming questions, and other insights. These reports allow subscribers to “see behind the curtain” in a way that is impossible with AI-generated forecasts.

The FutureFirst REST API enables your programs to retrieve daily updated forecast data for use in your models or other analyses. Separate entry points deliver Question data, Forecast data, and Forecast Distribution data (for applicable questions).  Data can be provided in JSON or CSV formats.


Example Questions on FutureFirst

  • When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?
  • Which party will win control of the US Congress in the 2022 elections?
  • Before 31 December 2022, will an OPEC member state other than Iran or Venezuela publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?
  • What will be the Federal Reserve’s total assets on 28 December 2022?

Pose Custom Questions to Superforecasters

Good Judgment’s Superforecaster Analytics is a robust alternative data source to replace vague guesses or assumptions on what will happen in the future. Professional Superforecasters work in teams to distill information from all available sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Armed with this information, organizations can minimize risk, capitalize on opportunities much earlier and with greater confidence, and gain an advantage over competitors.


How Superforecaster Analytics Works

  • Pose the right questions. Once you’ve identified the topics you want to explore, Good Judgment’s expert question team will work with you to frame your questions in a way that will deliver the most accurate and actionable answers.
  • Involve the Superforecasters. Your questions are released to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, who collaborate on our proprietary internal forecasting platform to generate informative and accurate answers within days. They then update their forecasts whenever new data, information, or analysis justifies doing so.
  • Receive an aggregated forecast and analysis. Good Judgment’s proprietary algorithm generates aggregated forecasts that are updated daily and made available to you through our FutureFirst™ online dashboard alongside the historical forecast trend. We can also summarize the Superforecasters’ commentary and analysis into periodic overview reports for each of your questions.

Next Steps

Our team is here to discuss how these forecasting services can benefit your organization.

 

About Good Judgment Inc and Superforecasters

Good Judgment originated as the Good Judgment Project (GJP) led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania. GJP was the undisputed victor in the competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events, which was sponsored by IARPA—the research arm of the US intelligence community.

The competition found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning probabilities to uncertain future events: the Superforecasters. Good Judgment Cofounder Philip Tetlock chronicled the original Superforecasters’ performance and unique attributes in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Today, the commercial successor Good Judgment Inc is a forecasting consulting firm that provides public and private organizations early insights on real-world events. Our global network of nearly 200 elite Superforecaster® professionals collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy, beating all head-to-head competitors.

Superforecasters use proven principles to assign probabilities to possible outcomes—with topics ranging from geopolitics and economics to public health, finance, and technology. By providing actionable, numeric forecasts alongside insightful context, we help clients to quantify risk, improve their judgment, and make better decisions faster.

Intrigued?

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

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