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Superforecasters identify the most likely outcomes of complex global questions with unmatched accuracy and unparalleled speed—in some cases, hundreds of days earlier than other forecasters—with customized forecasts and commentary reports tailored to your organization’s specific concerns.
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“In finance, a good forecast can mean the difference between bumper earnings and bankruptcy. The need for an accurate outlook is leading some firms to a novel and increasingly popular technique for predicting the future … Superforecasting”Wall Street Journal
Superforecasters are less noisy — they don’t show the variability that the rest of us show. They’re very smart; but also, very importantly, they don’t think in terms of “yes” or “no” but in terms of probability. They break problems down to their component parts and don’t think holistically.Cass Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and co-author of Noise
FutureFirst is Good Judgment’s subscription to current Superforecaster aggregated forecasts and commentary for 70+ topical forecasting questions.
A subscription to FutureFirst grants you access to daily probability forecasts and commentary from our global network of highly accurate professional Superforecasters who separate the signal from the noise, saving you time and money. With FutureFirst you can mitigate risk through near real-time monitoring of uncertain events and identify, and capitalize on, opportunities earlier and with greater confidence.
Our clients use FutureFirst to:
In addition to access to all forecasting questions, FutureFirst subscribers receive standard reports, which offer a representative sample of the Superforecaster commentary, notifications of recently closed and upcoming questions, and other insights. These reports allow subscribers to “see behind the curtain” in a way that is impossible with AI-generated forecasts.
The FutureFirst REST API enables your programs to retrieve daily updated forecast data for use in your models or other analyses. Separate entry points deliver Question data, Forecast data, and Forecast Distribution data (for applicable questions). Data can be provided in JSON or CSV formats.
Example Questions on FutureFirst
Good Judgment’s Superforecaster Analytics is a robust alternative data source to replace vague guesses or assumptions on what will happen in the future. Professional Superforecasters work in teams to distill information from all available sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Armed with this information, organizations can minimize risk, capitalize on opportunities much earlier and with greater confidence, and gain an advantage over competitors.
How Superforecaster Analytics Works
“Team Good Judgment, led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers of the University of Pennsylvania, beat the control group by more than 50%. This is the largest improvement in judgmental forecasting accuracy observed in the literature.”Steven Rieber, Program Manager, IARPA
Good Judgment originated as the Good Judgment Project (GJP) led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania. GJP was the undisputed victor in the competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events, which was sponsored by IARPA—the research arm of the US intelligence community.
The competition found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning probabilities to uncertain future events: the Superforecasters. Good Judgment Cofounder Philip Tetlock chronicled the original Superforecasters’ performance and unique attributes in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Today, the commercial successor Good Judgment Inc is a forecasting consulting firm that provides public and private organizations early insights on real-world events. Our global network of nearly 200 elite Superforecaster® professionals collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy, beating all head-to-head competitors.
Superforecasters use proven principles to assign probabilities to possible outcomes—with topics ranging from geopolitics and economics to public health, finance, and technology. By providing actionable, numeric forecasts alongside insightful context, we help clients to quantify risk, improve their judgment, and make better decisions faster.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.