Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World—
Kennedy School Forecasting Challenge

Welcome to Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain WorldKennedy School Forecasting Challenge!

We are excited to use Good Judgment’s forecasting platform to practice making forecasts of real-world events over the course of this semester—from politics and international affairs to sports and entertainment. By assigning a probability to events and then updating this probability over time, we hope you will deepen your appreciation that the world is an uncertain place and practice the skills we are learning in class to think more clearly about the world in the face of this uncertainty.

You will have the opportunity to answer multiple forecast questions over the semester, which will be released in batches. However, only the 12 assigned questions listed here are required for the course.

For each question, you should make an original forecast and then regularly update it as you find new information, as related events occur and as time passes. While you will make your forecasts individually, you have also been assigned to a team with whom you will work to share findings and test your thinking. Your final grade will be based on your performance, your participation in the activity as well as the performance of your team.

To get started, select the appropriate box below to sign up and make your forecasts on our first four questions.

We look forward to seeing your forecasts!

Existing Good Judgment Open user? Click here.

About Good Judgment Inc

Good Judgment Inc is the commercial spin-off of the Good Judgment Project (GJP) founded by Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock. Harnessing the wisdom of the crowd, our clients now benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made GJP so successful.

Our global network of elite Superforecasters collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. We also train others to apply the methods that make our Superforecasters so accurate.

Learn more about Good Judgment here.


About Good Judgment Open

The largest public forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is a crowd forecasting site where you can hone your forecasting skills, learn about the world, and engage with other forecasters. On GJ Open, you can make forecasts about the likelihood of future events and learn how accurate you were and how your accuracy compares with the crowd. Unlike prediction markets and other forecasting sites, you can share your reasoning with other forecasters to challenge your assumptions.

Join GJ Open challenges, collections of questions organized by a theme or topic, which are scored for accuracy. Top performers can compete for a chance to become one of Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters.

Join Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World—Kennedy School Forecasting Challenge


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