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We are excited to use Good Judgment’s forecasting platform to practice making forecasts of real-world events over the course of this semester—from politics and international affairs to sports and entertainment. By assigning a probability to events and then updating this probability over time, we hope you will deepen your appreciation that the world is an uncertain place and practice the skills we are learning in class to think more clearly about the world in the face of this uncertainty.
We will be answering 12 questions in total over the semester, which will be released in batches. For each question, you should make an original forecast and then regularly update it as you find new information, as related events occur, and as time passes. While you will make your forecasts individually, you have also been assigned to a team of five with whom you will work with to share findings and test your thinking. Your final grade will be based on your performance, as well as the performance of your team.
To get started, select the appropriate box below to sign up and make your forecasts on our first four questions.
We look forward to seeing your forecasts!
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