Elevate your outlook on the foreseeable future

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #4: Superforecasting Requires “Counterfactualizing”

“A famous economist, Albert Hirschman, had a wonderful phrase, ‘self-subversion’ … Self-subversion is an integral part of what makes Superforecasting cognition work. It’s the willingness to tolerate dissonance. It’s hard to be an extremist when you engage in self-subverting counterfactual cognition.” Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, […]

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #3: The Elusive Control Groups in Policy Debates

“For E.H. Carr, counterfactuals were a pestilence, they were a frivolous parlor game, a methodological rattle, a sore loser’s history….  Many historians do still agree, in some form, with E.H. Carr. Virtually all economic historians would agree with Robert Fogel, who’s one of the pivotal people in economic history; he won a Nobel Prize. But […]”

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #2: Prying Open Closed Minds in Unnecessarily Polarized Debates