“What we’re trying to encourage in training is not only getting people to monitor their thought processes, but to listen to themselves think about how they think. That sounds dangerously like an infinite regress into nowhere, but the capacity to listen to yourself, talk to yourself, and decide whether you like what you’re hearing is […]”
“A famous economist, Albert Hirschman, had a wonderful phrase, ‘self-subversion’ … Self-subversion is an integral part of what makes Superforecasting cognition work. It’s the willingness to tolerate dissonance. It’s hard to be an extremist when you engage in self-subverting counterfactual cognition.” Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, […]
“For E.H. Carr, counterfactuals were a pestilence, they were a frivolous parlor game, a methodological rattle, a sore loser’s history…. Many historians do still agree, in some form, with E.H. Carr. Virtually all economic historians would agree with Robert Fogel, who’s one of the pivotal people in economic history; he won a Nobel Prize. But […]”