“The bank referred to forecasts from Good Judgment, a company that uses superforecasting, that predict a 10 percent chance of a vaccine being broadly available before the first quarter of 2021. The chance of this has now risen, the bank said.

“‘Using the superforecasters’ estimates for our upside case implies that the current equity market level is consistent with a probability of around 40 percent for both our baseline and upside cases and 20 percent for the downside case-in other words, 60 percent on the ‘no early vaccine’ outcome.'”