UK election 2019: what the ‘wisdom of crowds’ forecasts

Nesta’s Centre for Collective Intelligence and BBC Future sponsored a year-long forecasting challenge on Good Judgment Open to foster research on crowd-sourcing forecasts. The Nesta researchers reported in early December 2019 that the crowd wisdom had swung toward a Conservative majority in the UK general election − which proved to be the correct forecast. The GJ Open crowd also made accurate forecasts on the extension of Article 50 in March and the vote share gained by Change UK and the Brexit Party in the May 2019 European parliament elections.

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