Views from the floor: … the super forecasts of the Superforecasters

On September 8th, the Superforecasters began signalling increased pessimism about early availability of a vaccine. Two weeks later:

However, it seems like the market has caught up with the Superforecasters – with the [Goldman Sachs Health Risk] basket falling around five percentage points on 21 September – highlighting the slowness with which a theoretically efficient market sometimes reacts. In contrast, it bolsters the view that there if there is one thing better than the wisdom of the crowds, it is the wisdom of well-informed crowds – and that forecasting is vastly more successful in a probabilistic framework.

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