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New research from Good Judgment co-founder Barbara Mellers, a Wharton marketing professor, and Ville Satopӓӓ, INSEAD, uses data from the Good Judgment Project to examine the factors that influence forecasting accuracy. To their surprise, they found that the greatest advantage Superforecasters have over “regular” forecasters is a disciplined forecasting process that greatly reduces “noise” in their forecasts. Superforecasters also demonstrated less bias and had more/better information.
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