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In a follow-up to a January survey, Quartz reporter Walter Frick asked Good Judgment’s Superforecasters how their views on the likelihood of a US recession have changed in light of the coronavirus outbreak. The results were sobering: Superforecasters doubled their collective estimate of a recession from 18% in January to 36% in March.
Frick reports that the Superforecasters’ increased pessimism is consistent with that of other financial forecasters.
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