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You’re invited to join the Nonrival Forecasting Challenge, hosted by Good Judgment Open. By assigning a probability to future events, we hope participants can practice their forecasting skills, learn from others, and improve their thinking over time.
The Challenge explores key questions about the economy or tech, and insights on these topics can be found in the Nonrival weekly newsletter. New questions will be added weekly.
To get started, select the appropriate box below to sign up and begin making your forecasts.
Nonrival isn’t a typical newsletter: It’s a forecasting tournament in your inbox. As a reader, you’ll learn about a topic, make a prediction, learn from others, and improve your thinking over time.
Every week you’ll get a newsletter exploring a key question about the economy or tech—How many jobs will go remote? How much venture capital will be invested next quarter? Will there be a recession this year? The newsletter provides key information and a variety of perspectives on the topic—and then readers make a prediction.
Later in the week you get a follow-up email showing how your forecast compares to the group and highlighting the most thoughtful reasons readers gave for their predictions.
Accurate predictions are really useful. They’re an essential part of good decision-making. Should you bring an umbrella to work? It depends on the likelihood of rain. Should funding for the NIH be higher? It depends on what effects we think that will have. Is an investment opportunity worth it? It depends on how we expect it to turn out. Not everything important can be predicted, but predictions are an inescapable part of knowledge.
Crowd forecasting works. Combining the forecasts of a group of people can produce more accurate predictions than many individual experts. By combining our individual judgments, we can produce more accurate information than any one of us could produce on our own.
Forecasting improves your thinking. There’s no better cure for overconfidence than making concrete predictions and seeing how they pan out. Forecasting helps develop good mental habits and improves reasoning skills. That’s not to say that everything about thinking well boils down to accurate forecasting–far from it. But if you want to get better at developing accurate beliefs about the empirical world, forecasting is a good way to put your thinking to the test and improve your reasoning skills over time.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.