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The bottom line:
Shortly after Election Day 2016, ClearerThinking took part in organizing a novel research project. Inspired by our longstanding interest in making more accurate predictions, we collaborated with affiliates to set up a long-term experiment: how accurately could different groups of people predict the political events of the coming years? Our findings from the first year of the Trump presidency demonstrate the intriguing power of group forecasts. ….
Of the three participant groups, the Good Judgment Inc. group made the most accurate forecasts. ….
The median accuracy scores for each group broke down as follows:
The “friends” group: 87.3%
The Good Judgment Inc. superforecaster group: 95.47%
The Mechanical Turk group: 84.68%
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