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Industry: Food & Beverage
Size: Fortune Global 500 company
About: This multinational consumer goods company is a market leader in a diverse array of food, beverage, and nutrition products. It invests heavily in research and development so that it can anticipate industry trends.
The research arm of this multinational food company turned to Good Judgment to address "a need for multi-year predictability of trends to inform research strategy & resource allocation in the food innovation process."
Working with client experts, Good Judgment adapted a methodology originally developed for the intelligence community to turn the client's scenarios into clusters of forecasting questions. Each question reflected a potential driver or indicator of consumer trends.
Good Judgment Superforecasters made probabilistic forecasts on each question, which our data scientists combined into an overall index of alternative-protein trends. Forecasts can be continuously updated to monitor ongoing developments.
The pilot project successfully adapted the cluster methodology to this new setting, producing more rigorous forecasts than possible via other techniques. Our client has submitted a manuscript describing the innovative approach to an industry journal.
The forecasting data proved useful in terms of understanding the future of alternative proteins while the clustering process was a valuable tool for rigorously testing organizational assumptions and fostering productive discussions about those assumptions and their collective predictions.Paper co-authored by research project lead at a major multinational food corporation