Before President Trump took office in January 2017, ClearerThinking.org decided to hold a crowd forecasting competition to predict the policies of the new administration − and they asked the Superforecasters to take part.
The study designers picked the topics and the competitors. They tracked the competitors’ performance. (Good Judgment wasn’t even aware of the other two groups in the “competition.”) After a little over a year, ClearerThinking.org published the results on their website.
To no one’s surprise, the Superforecasters came out on top.
According to ClearerThinking, the “median accuracy scores for each group” (as measured by the study’s chosen measure, an “average log score”) put the Superforecasters ahead of the other two competitors. Superforecasters received an accuracy score of 95.47%; the other two groups received scores of 87.3% and 84.68%.
Apparently, it is possible to predict the policies of a new administration, even one where the top of the ticket has no track record in public office.
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