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Superforecasters have only one objective – accuracy.
That singular focus has given them an edge in head-to-head competitions against forecasters embedded in other organizations, where competing objectives sometimes get in the way of accuracy.
Whatever the reason, an independent comparison of Good Judgment forecasts to those from the US intelligence community’s prediction market, known as the ICPM, showed a clear accuracy advantage for Team Good Judgment. That was true even though the intelligence analysts had access to classified information that was unavailable to Good Judgment’s forecasters.
In fact, the top [Good Judgment] forecasters, drawn from universities and elsewhere, performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.David Ignatius, Washington Post
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