Resources > The Superforecasters’ Track Record > Superforecasters vs the ICPM

Who made more accurate forecasts – Superforecasters or intelligence analysts?

Superforecasters, of course!

Superforecasters have only one objective – accuracy.

That singular focus has given them an edge in head-to-head competitions against forecasters embedded in other organizations, where competing objectives sometimes get in the way of accuracy.

Whatever the reason, an independent comparison of Good Judgment forecasts to those from the US intelligence community’s prediction market, known as the ICPM,  showed a clear accuracy advantage for Team Good Judgment. That was true even though the intelligence analysts had access to classified information that was unavailable to the Superforecasters.

 

Source: Goldstein et al. (2015), Assessing the Accuracy of Geopolitical Forecasts from the US Intelligence Community’s Prediction Market (unpublished manuscript).

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