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Forecasting US Elections

Superforecasting® US Elections

Superforecasting US Elections features the most accurate forecasts about key races, their outcomes, and their impact on policy. Cut through the noise with Superforecasters who provide you with specific probabilities, as well as the risks and drivers behind their forecasts.


  • Which party will win control of the US Congress in the 2024 elections?
  • Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for US president?
  • Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for US president?
  • What will be the result of the 2024 election for US president?
  • When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?


The Superforecasters offer the best possible crowd-sourced forecasts based on the information available today. Rather than relying on a single source or expert, they evaluate the merits of hundreds of sources and experts.

This topical dashboard is a subset of the FutureFirst dashboard and is available for a limited time. It also includes a report with a representative sample of the Superforecasters’ comments, summarizing the drivers, risks, and rationales from the professional forecasters.

For a full list of questions please click here:

The Superforecasters Nailed the 2020 US Presidential Election


Want to see the Superforecasters’ thoughts on the 2024 US presidential election? Request a free consultation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a subscription to Superforecasting US Elections include?

Superforecasting US Elections includes 24/7 access to the topical forecast dashboard. Forecasts are updated daily and displayed alongside historical forecast trends.

The subscription also includes a summary report with Superforecaster analysis, comments, and context for what is driving the forecasts.

Subscribers will have access to new questions added during the subscription period, and they can nominate new questions or request ones that are similar to existing questions.

How does Superforecasting US Elections differ from FutureFirst?

Superforecasting US Elections is part of Good Judgment’s FutureFirst monitoring tool. FutureFirst also includes forecasts on a broader range of topics—including global economics, geopolitics, and technology, as well as other topics such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

Where do these forecasts come from?

Elite Superforecasters from around the world work together to track and distill information about US elections from hundreds of available public sources, providing precise probabilities—and delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Their commentary reflects the full spectrum of their views, so you may benefit from multiple perspectives and rather than a single point of view.

If you have additional questions or want to talk through our services, request a free consultation.

Get insights sooner

An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.


Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

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