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Superforecasting® Ukraine is a dashboard of key questions about the future of the conflict in Ukraine and its implications. Cut through the noise with the Superforecasters who provide you with specific probabilities about the risks and the drivers of their forecasts:
The Superforecasters offer the best possible crowd-sourced forecasts based on the information available today. Rather than relying on a single source or expert, they evaluate the merits of hundreds of sources and experts.
This topical dashboard is a subset of the FutureFirst™ dashboard and is available for a limited time. It includes a special report summarizing the drivers, risks, and gray swans identified by the Superforecasters.
For a full list of questions and free 7-day trial of the Superforecasting Ukraine dashboard, please click here:
Superforecasters are less noisy — they don’t show the variability that the rest of us show. They’re very smart; but also, very importantly, they don’t think in terms of “yes” or “no” but in terms of probability. They break problems down to their component parts and don’t think holistically.Cass Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and co-author of Noise
What does a subscription to Superforecasting Ukraine include?
Superforecasting Ukraine includes 24/7 access to the topical forecast dashboard. Forecasts are updated daily and displayed alongside historical forecast trends.
The subscription also includes a summary report with Superforecaster analysis, comments, and context for what is driving the forecasts.
Subscribers will have access to new questions added during the subscription period, and they can nominate new questions or request ones that are similar to existing questions.
How does Superforecasting Ukraine differ from FutureFirst?
Superforecasting Ukraine is part of Good Judgment’s FutureFirst monitoring tool. FutureFirst also includes forecasts on a broader range of topics—including economics, geopolitics, and technology, as well as other topics such as China.
To see a sample of these probability forecasts, visit the Public Dashboard.
Where do these forecasts come from?
Elite Superforecasters from around the world work together to track and distill information about the Russia-Ukraine war from all available public sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Their commentary reflects the full spectrum of their views, so you benefit from multiple perspectives and not just a single point of view.
An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.