Services > Superforecasting® Ukraine

Forecasting the Russia-Ukraine war
and its implications

 

Superforecasting® Ukraine

 

Superforecasting® Ukraine is a dashboard of key questions about the future of the conflict in Ukraine and its implications. Cut through the noise with the Superforecasters who provide you with specific probabilities about the risks and the drivers of their forecasts:

  • Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?
  • Will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?
  • Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?
  • …and many more

 

The Superforecasters offer the best possible crowd-sourced forecasts based on the information available today. Rather than relying on a single source or expert, they evaluate the merits of hundreds of sources and experts.

This topical dashboard is a subset of the FutureFirst dashboard and is available for a limited time. It includes a special report summarizing the drivers, risks, and gray swans identified by the Superforecasters.

For a full list of questions and free 7-day trial of the Superforecasting Ukraine dashboard, please click here:

Frequently Asked Questions

 

What does a subscription to Superforecasting Ukraine include?

Superforecasting Ukraine includes 24/7 access to the topical forecast dashboard. Forecasts are updated daily and displayed alongside historical forecast trends.

The subscription also includes a summary report with Superforecaster analysis, comments, and context for what is driving the forecasts.

Subscribers will have access to new questions added during the subscription period, and they can nominate new questions or request ones that are similar to existing questions.


How does the Superforecasting Ukraine
differ from FutureFirst?

Superforecasting Ukraine is part of Good Judgment’s FutureFirst monitoring tool. FutureFirst also includes forecasts on a broader range of topics—including economics, geopolitics, and technology, as well as other topics such as China.

To see a sample of these probability forecasts, visit the Public Dashboard.


Where do these forecasts come from?

Elite Superforecasters from around the world work together to track and distill information about the Russia-Ukraine war from all available public sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Their commentary reflects the full spectrum of their views, so you benefit from multiple perspectives and not just a single point of view.

If you have additional questions or want to talk through our offerings, contact a sales consultant.

Get insights sooner

An analysis of Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters could see those events 150 days ahead.

Intrigued?

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

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