With the most extensive, independently verified track record of early foresight ever compiled, Good Judgment and its global network of certified Superforecasters are uniquely equipped to help you think more clearly about an uncertain future.
Will a major stimulus bill be enacted before the election? We feature the Superforecasters’ updated views on this question.
On-again, off-again stimulus negotiations pose risks to both parties, which – along with the pending Amy Coney Barrett confirmation vote – keeps our Congressional-election forecasts in the spotlight.
We update our probability forecasts at 7am EDT daily, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often.
How accurate are the Superforecasters? Review the scores for all closed questions on our public scoreboard.
To date, seven questions have closed, with one more resolution pending official data (Presidential candidate fundraising). The average Brier score for our aggregate Superforecasts over the seven questions is 0.1439 on a 0 to 2 scale, where 0 represents perfect prescience.
When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.
Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.
Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.
Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate? That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for specific examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Good Judgment has suspended its in-person public workshops until further notice. We do, however, offer virtual workshops and training courses. See our Private Workshops page for more details.
Individuals interested in Superforecasting training are also invited to consider our online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals, and are welcome to practice their forecasting skills on our public forecasting site, Good Judgment Open.
J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020
Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business, 21 September 2020
Peter Coy, Bloomberg Businessweek, 30 September 2020
Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions.