With the most extensive, independently verified track record of early foresight ever compiled, Good Judgment and its global network of certified Superforecasters are uniquely equipped to help you think more clearly about an uncertain future.
Good news on the vaccine front continues, with the AstraZeneca vaccine also reporting positive results regarding its clinical trials. The “Oxford vaccine” is also reportedly less expensive and easier to transport than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Promising clinical trial results are a key milestone on the path to widespread distribution of a vaccine. Regulatory reviews are another, and Pfizer filed its Emergency Use Authorization application with the US Food & Drug Administration last week, moving that vaccine closer to actual distribution. But we’re not out of the woods yet. This week, we update our deep dive into the Superforecasters’ latest views on the timing of widespread vaccine availability with an update on a special forecast that Good Judgment made for The Economist’s World in 2021 edition.
We update our probability forecasts at 7am EST daily, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often.
When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.
Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.
Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.
Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate? That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for specific examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. We have split the workshop into two days – December 9th and 10th. Each session will run for a maximum of 2½ hours. Participants should plan to attend both sessions.
Individuals interested in Superforecasting training are also invited to consider our online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals, and are welcome to practice their forecasting skills on our public forecasting site, Good Judgment Open.
J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020
Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist, 16 November 2020
Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business, 21 September 2020
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