Will shots be fired between China and Taiwan before 2025? What will be the result of the 2024 US presidential election? What will be the midpoint of the US federal funds target range at the end of 2023? These were among the most read reports on our subscription-only FutureFirst™ monitor in the past 30 days. We highlight these questions with a limited version of the reports on our Public Dashboard. Many more great forecasts, including those on Taiwan, China’s GDP, and key elections around the world, are available through our paid subscription, FutureFirst.
When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.
Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.
Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.
Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate? That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for specific examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops have returned in an all-virtual format.
While you await the public workshop, individuals interested in Superforecasting training are invited to consider our online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. Boost your skills even more with regular forecasting practice on our public site, Good Judgment Open.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.