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See the future coming with professional crowd-sourced insights and quantified forecasts.
Train your internal strategists and analysts to think like Superforecasters.
Great decisions require great forecasts. Good Judgment uses the science of Superforecasting to turn your strategic uncertainty into manageable risk.
When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.
Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.
Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.
Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. The Good Judgment Project—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor of the geopolitical forecasting competition. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Tetlock and Mellers co-founded Good Judgment Inc to provide forecasting services to partners and clients in the non-profit, government, and private sectors.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate? That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
Good Judgment is pleased to announce our next public workshop, in an all-virtual format.
Participants should plan to join both Tuesday and Thursday.
New York Times (June 2023)
NYT’s Peter Coy writes, “Fed watchers on Wall Street have had a bad past few months. […] Good Judgment Inc., a private forecasting outfit, calculates that its […] superforecasters […] were more accurate in two respects: closer to the mark and with less variability.”
BBC Reel (January 2023)
BBC Reel, the BBC’s short documentary platform, explains Superforecasting in under 9 minutes. The video examines the traits and characteristics that make Superforecasters stand out from the crowd, the importance of being able to quantify uncertainty, and ways to improve forecasting accuracy.
The World Ahead 2023, The Economist (November 2022)
Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts for The Economist’s forward-looking publication, The World Ahead 2023. The forecasts focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions around Taiwan, global economy, and key elections in the coming year.
Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.