With the most extensive, independently verified track record of early foresight ever compiled, Good Judgment and its global network of certified Superforecasters are uniquely equipped to help you think more clearly about an uncertain future.
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T minus one week and counting …
All eyes are on next week’s US elections. Record-breaking numbers of Americans have already cast ballots, yet there is still plenty of time – and plenty of votes remaining to be cast – for the outcome to swing in favor of either of the major parties. You may want to check back daily to see how the Superforecasts on the Presidential race and control of Congress are evolving.
We update our probability forecasts at 7am EDT daily, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often.
When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing.
Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts.
Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes.
Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence.
Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom.
Why are Superforecasters so accurate? That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Read more >>
See our Case Studies for specific examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions.
Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. More details plus a registration link coming soon.
Individuals interested in Superforecasting training are also invited to consider our online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals, and are welcome to practice their forecasting skills on our public forecasting site, Good Judgment Open.
J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020
Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business, 21 September 2020
Peter Coy, Bloomberg Businessweek, 30 September 2020
Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions.