Applied Superforecasting Fundamentals

Applied Superforecasting Fundamentals

Coming Summer 2021

Applied Superforecasting® Fundamentals

An exclusive professional development program to engage, train, and evaluate interns in forecasting and decision making

Good Judgment’s popular Superforecasting Workshops are now being offered as part of a
structured competition for summer interns on forecasting topics of interest to your organization.

Program Details

Virtual Workshop Sessions

Two hours each, with a 10-minute break after the first hour

Before the first session:
» Participants take online Forecasting Aptitude Inventory (+/-30 minutes), which examines cognitive style and strengths and weaknesses with respect to forecasting acumen
» Participants log on to our public forecasting site, Good Judgment Open, get a team assignment, and practice on pre-selected forecasting questions alongside colleagues 

SESSION 1

» Review of participants’ aggregate performance on the Forecasting Aptitude Inventory

» Introduction to the cognitive biases that most harm forecast accuracy

» Discussion of best ways to set base rates

SESSION 2

» Review of base rates and students’ forecasts on Good Judgment Open questions

» Discussion of best methods for team-based forecasting

» Team forecasting exercises

As little as 45 minutes of de-biasing training has been shown to boost accuracy by 6-11%

SESSION 3

» Explanation of hindsight bias and test if group has been subject to “false memories”

» Discussion of scope insensitivity and other cognitive biases that harm forecast accuracy

» Introduction to forecasting question generation best practices and group exercise in question generation

SESSION 4

» Brief discussion of aggregation algorithms

» Discussion of applying forecasting to foresight/scenario planning, and creation of forecast clusters to model long-term and strategic questions

» Review of participants’ performance on Good Judgment Open

Research has shown that adopting best methods for teams can boost forecast accuracy by 10% or more

Practice on Good Judgment Open

The largest public forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is the ideal place to practice forecasting skills. Participants gain experience predicting resolutions to newsworthy and noteworthy questions relevant to your organization.

 

Program Wrap-Up

» Forecaster feedback reports distributed to analyze performance and recommended ways to improve
» Certificate of course completion and accreditation for active participants, shareable on LinkedIn

Contact Marc Koehler at [email protected]oodjudgment.com for more information.

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