Good Judgment SVP and Superforecaster® Marc Koehler joined GJ co-founder Phil Tetlock and Event Horizon’s Dr. J. Peter Scoblic to discuss the integrated foresight approach presented in “A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think about the Future,” a new Foreign Affairs article co-authored by Tetlock and Scoblic.
Sign up below to receive a link to the recording, so that you can learn how public- and private-sector organizations can improve strategic foresight with a “best of both worlds” approach that incorporates the strengths of both scenario planning and probabilistic forecasting.
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Our jointly developed foresight model helps organizations to sense, shape, and adapt to the future by generating plausible long-term scenarios and then using a cluster of focused, short-term forecasts to indicate which scenario is most likely to emerge. By combining the power of imagination with the science of probabilistic prediction, this “qualitative-quantitative synthesis” empowers leaders to make decisions in the present despite the uncertainty of the future, helping them craft robust strategy that accounts for a wide range of possible outcomes.
This holistic method would provide policymakers with both a range of conceivable futures and regular updates as to which one is likely to emerge. For once they could make shrewd bets about tomorrow, today.
J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November-December 2020
Event Horizon Strategies LLC is a strategic foresight consultancy and executive education firm co-founded by Dr. Peter Scoblic. Dr. Scoblic has written extensively about foresight, with a focus on scenario planning and other imaginative aids to strategy, and his work has appeared in publications ranging from The New York Times to Harvard Business Review to Science. Event Horizon works with clients to improve their ability to sense, shape, and adapt to the emerging future, facilitating long-range planning and robust strategy under conditions of deep uncertainty.
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Good Judgment uses the world’s most accurate judgmental forecasting methodology to help clients make better decisions by removing uncertainty and bringing the right decision into clear focus sooner. Good Judgment’s unique process leverages the wisdom of the crowd by enlisting its specially trained Superforecaster® network to explore critical questions and provide early-warning indicators for related issues and events. The firm’s services are used across a multitude of industries, including but not limited to financial services, energy, government, healthcare, and NGOs.
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