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Good Judgment SVP and Superforecaster® Marc Koehler will join GJ co-founder Phil Tetlock and Event Horizon’s Dr. J. Peter Scoblic to discuss the integrated foresight approach presented in “A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think about the Future,” a new Foreign Affairs article co-authored by Tetlock and Scoblic.
Learn how public- and private-sector organizations can improve strategic foresight with a “best of both worlds” approach that incorporates the strengths of both scenario planning and probabilistic forecasting.
Please complete the short form below to reserve your place in this free webinar, which will take place on Wednesday, December 2nd, from 11am-noon EST. We'll e-mail to confirm your registration and provide a link to join the live webinar.
Registrants who are unable to join the live presentation will receive a link to the recording afterward.
More details about the webinar content follow after this registration form.
Our jointly developed foresight model helps organizations to sense, shape, and adapt to the future by generating plausible long-term scenarios and then using a cluster of focused, short-term forecasts to indicate which scenario is most likely to emerge. By combining the power of imagination with the science of probabilistic prediction, this “qualitative-quantitative synthesis” empowers leaders to make decisions in the present despite the uncertainty of the future, helping them craft robust strategy that accounts for a wide range of possible outcomes.
This holistic method would provide policymakers with both a range of conceivable futures and regular updates as to which one is likely to emerge. For once they could make shrewd bets about tomorrow, today.J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November-December 2020
Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions.