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Good Judgment offers Superforecasting® Workshops to help organizations develop a structured process for forecasting, teach efficient collaboration across teams, and enhance forecasting accuracy.
Good Judgment Superforecasters have proven time and time again that they're the best in the business. An analysis of the Good Judgment Project forecasts by UC-Irvine decision scientist Mark Steyvers found that Superforecasters anticipated events 400 days in advance as accurately as regular forecasters predicted the same events 150 days ahead.
Good Judgment Superforecasters have a proven track record of making highly accurate predictions—ranking in the top 2% for accuracy compared to a large baseline group, and outperforming U.S. intelligence analysts with access to classified information by 30%. These individuals are uniquely qualified to train other forecasters wishing to improve their accuracy.
Good Judgment’s workshops are led by subject matter experts and elite Superforecasters with deep, hands-on knowledge of forecasting challenges and best practices.
Good Judgment Superforecasters train professionals how to hone forecasting and decision-making skills. Workshops are customized and structured to align with each client’s schedule and training needs.
All workshop formats are available as a virtual or in-person experience. Workshops are typically designed for groups of up to 25 participants but can accommodate much larger audiences.
Introduction to Superforecasting provides a strong summary of the core tenets of Professor Philip Tetlock’s book 'Superforecasting,' while incorporating new research findings in a highly interactive format. This session can be customized for specific content and length.
Time: 45 minutes - 2 hours
Applied Superforecasting expands on the content from Introduction to Superforecasting, with a greater focus on Superforecasting best practices through a mix of instruction and exercises designed to improve individual accuracy and team-based insight. The output includes a checklist that participants can use to structure their forecasting process.
Time: 4 hours, can be divided into 2 sessions
Comprehensive Superforecasting covers content from Introduction to Superforecasting and Applied Superforecasting, adding significantly more team-based practice and focusing on forecasting issues that are the most relevant to participants. Participants are often assigned to practice forecasting between sessions on our crowd forecasting site Good Judgment Open.
Time: 8 hours, normally 4 sessions over 4 weeks
Participants learn how to write rigorous and relevant forecasting questions, surface and mitigate hidden cognitive biases, minimize noise, and weigh new evidence to yield the most accurate predictions. Master information-sharing techniques proven to boost collective intelligence and judgmental accuracy with Good Judgment workshops.