Superforecasting Explained in Podcasts and Videos

Written by

Superforecasting® Explained in Podcasts and Videos

Superforecasting is a disciplined approach to forecasting that uses probabilistic thinking, continuous updating, and rigorous calibration to make well-informed judgments about future events. This approach is based on decades of research spearheaded by Dr. Philip Tetlock into what traits and tools make some people remarkably good at forecasting while others, including many experts, fall short. Since IARPA’s massive forecasting tournament of 2011-2015, Superforecasting has been proven to outperform traditional forecasting methods in many areas, including finance and policy decision-making (e.g., see our forecasting report on the early trajectory of Covid-19). Below, we’ve curated our favourite podcasts and videos that showcase the principles and real-world applications of Superforecasting.

Top 5 Podcasts and Videos

1. BBC Reel: Can You Learn to Predict the Future? (8:21)
This short video from BBC Reel introduces the concept of Superforecasting in an engaging and visual way. It explores the techniques that make accurate forecasting possible and discusses how anyone can improve their forecasting skills.

2. Quid Explore: Superforecasting with Dr. Warren Hatch (22:32)
In this detailed conversation, Dr. Warren Hatch, Superforecaster and CEO of Good Judgment Inc, explains the science behind Superforecasting. He discusses the traits of successful forecasters and shares practical tips for applying these skills in professional and personal decision-making.

3. More or Less: Superforecasting the Coronavirus (08:57)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

4. Talking Politics: David Spiegelhalter on Superforecasting (48:55)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

5. MarketWatch: Can an Ice Storm Predict the Next Meme Stocks? (25:38)
This podcast explores the intersection of forecasting and finance, showcasing how Superforecasting can shed light on trends in the stock market. In this episode, Dr. Hatch defines “prediction” vs “forecast,” describes the innate characteristics that make some people better at forecasting high-stakes world and financial events, and explains how anybody, whether they possess those innate characteristics or not, can get better at forecasting with practice.

Take a Deeper Dive: Edge Master Class on Superforecasting

For those seeking a more in-depth exploration of Superforecasting, consider the Edge Master Class on Superforecasting led by Dr. Philip Tetlock. This short course covers the foundational principles and techniques of Superforecasting and features discussions with renowned experts (including Dr. Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate in economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow; Dr. Barbara Mellers, a leading researcher in decision-making and another key figure behind the GJP; Dr. Robert Axelrod, a political scientist specializing in international security, formal models, and complex adaptive systems), as well as entrepreneurs and journalists.

From Theory to Practice

Whether you’re new to Superforecasting or want to deepen your understanding, these podcasts and videos are a great place to start! Ready to take the next step? Superforecasters’ methods and traits can be learned and cultivated. Start building your own forecasting skills with our training programs.

Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

Written by

Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.”
– Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting

In any area of decision-making where uncertainty looms large, accuracy is the gold standard. However, many decision makers often find themselves in a frustrating cycle—sometimes they make the right call, but other times they miss the mark entirely. Inconsistency can be costly. So, what separates those who occasionally succeed from those who reliably deliver top-notch forecasts? The answer lies in informed practice—one of the concepts at the heart of Superforecasting.

What Is Informed Practice?

Informed practice is not just repetition. It’s a deliberate and thoughtful process of learning from each forecast, refining techniques, and continuously updating one’s beliefs based on new information. It’s about approaching forecasting with a Superforecaster’s mindset—an outlook geared toward improvement, with a consistent effort to mitigate one’s cognitive biases.

What Can Forecasters Learn from Superforecasters?

Superforecasters, known for their uncanny forecasting accuracy, exemplify informed practice. They don’t pull numbers out of a hat or look into a crystal ball for answers. For every question they face, they engage in a rigorous process of analysis, reflection, and adjustment. Here’s how informed practice gives them the edge:

1. Learning from Feedback: Superforecasters thrive on feedback. They meticulously track their forecasts, comparing them against the outcomes to identify where they went right and where they missed the mark. This feedback loop is crucial. It allows them to recalibrate their approach and avoid making the same mistakes twice. Over time, this leads to more refined and accurate forecasts.

2. Understanding Probability: A key aspect of informed practice is the understanding and effective use of probability. Superforecasters don’t think in black-and-white, yes-or-no terms. They consider a range of possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each. They also update these probabilities as new information becomes available, a process known as Bayesian reasoning. This probabilistic thinking helps them navigate uncertainty with greater precision.

3. Continuous Learning: The world is constantly changing, and so too are the variables that influence forecasts. Superforecasters are voracious learners, continuously updating their knowledge base. They stay informed about the latest developments in multiple areas, thus grounding their forecasts in the most current data and insights.

4. Mitigating Cognitive Biases: Cognitive biases can cloud judgment and lead to poor forecasts. Superforecasters are keenly aware of these biases and actively work to mitigate their impact. Through informed practice, they develop strategies to counteract such biases as overconfidence, anchoring, confirmation bias, and more, to make well-calibrated forecasts.

What Is the Role of Collaboration in This?

Informed practice is not a solitary endeavor. Collaboration with other forecasters is a powerful tool for improving accuracy and keeping track. By engaging in discussions, comparing notes, and challenging each other’s assumptions, forecasters can gain new perspectives and insights. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters work in teams, leveraging the collective intelligence of the group to arrive at superior forecasts.

What Practical Steps Can I Take?

1. Keep Track: Keep a record of your forecasts and compare them with the outcomes. Analyze your hits and misses to identify patterns and areas for improvement.

2. Seek Feedback: Seek out feedback from peers or through forecasting platforms such as GJ Open, which provides performance metrics. Use this feedback to refine your approach.

3. Diversify Your Sources of Information: Regularly update your knowledge on the topics you forecast and seek out diverse sources. This includes staying current with news, research, and expert opinions, including those you disagree with.

4. Practice Probabilistic Thinking: Assign probabilities to your forecasts and be willing to adjust them as new information emerges. This helps you avoid the trap of binary thinking.

5. Challenge Your Assumptions: Regularly question your assumptions and be open to changing your mind. This flexibility is crucial in a rapidly changing world.

6. Get a Head Start with GJ Superforecasting Workshops: Consider enrolling in a Superforecasting workshop. Good Judgment’s workshops, led by Superforecasters and GJ data scientists, leverage our years of experience in the field of elite forecasting as well as new developments in the art and science of decision-making to provide you with structured guidance on improving your forecasting skills. Our practical exercises will boost your informed practice, offering you lifelong benefits.

Informed practice is the cornerstone of good forecasting and one of the secrets behind the success of Superforecasters. By diligently applying the above principles, you can enhance your forecasting skills and make better-informed decisions. See the workshops we offer to help you and your team take your forecasting success to the next level.

Common Questions about Good Judgment Inc and Superforecasters

Written by

A Primer on Good Judgment Inc and Superforecasters

At Good Judgment Inc (GJI), the official home of Superforecasting®, we pride ourselves on our ability to provide well-calibrated and insightful forecasts. As we continue to partner with clients and media worldwide, it is worthwhile to address some of the common questions we receive about our work. Here is a primer on our story, probabilistic forecasts, and our team of Superforecasters.

What’s in a Name? GJP, GJI, and GJ Open

The Good Judgment Project (GJP)
In 2011, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) launched a massive tournament to identify the most effective methods for forecasting geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP), led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania, emerged as the clear winner of the tournament. The research project concluded in 2015, but its legacy lives on. The GJP is credited with the discovery of Superforecasters, people who are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training.

Good Judgment Inc (GJI)
GJI is the commercial successor to the GJP and the official home of Superforecasting® today. We leverage the lessons learned during the IARPA tournament and insights gained in our subsequent work with Phil Tetlock and his research colleagues as well as with leading companies, academic institutions, governments, and non-governmental organizations to provide the best and the latest in forecasting and training services. Our goal is to help organizations make better decisions by harnessing the power of accurate forecasts. GJI relies on a team of Superforecasters, as well as data and decision scientists, to provide forecasting and training to clients.

Good Judgment Open (GJ Open)
GJO, or GJ Open, is our public platform, open to anyone interested in making forecasts. Unlike GJI, which involves professional Superforecasters, GJO welcomes participation from the public. The “Open” in GJ Open not only signifies that it’s accessible to all but also draws a parallel to golf tournaments. Forecasting questions vary in their complexity, so there is no absolute score to indicate a “good” forecast. We use the median of participants’ scores as a benchmark, similar to par in golf, where lower scores indicate better performance.

A Note on Spelling
You may have noticed that “judgment” is spelled without an “e” on all our platforms. This is a consistent choice across GJP, GJI, and GJ Open, reflecting our preference for the parsimonious American spelling of the word.

Understanding Probabilistic Forecasts
Sample forecast on FutureFirst™, 12 July 2024

Our forecasts are not polls. They are aggregated probabilistic predictions about specific events. For instance, Superforecasters gave Joe Biden an 82% chance of winning the 2020 US presidential election. This means that if the election were held 100 times, Biden would win in 82 of those instances.

A common misconception is interpreting a probabilistic forecast as “X% of Superforecasters say a particular outcome will happen.” In reality, each Superforecaster provides their own probabilistic forecast, and we aggregate these individual predictions to reach a collective forecast. Therefore, an 82% forecast does not mean 82% of Superforecasters believe a certain outcome will occur. It is an aggregated probability of the outcome (an 82% probability of it occurring and an 18% probability of a different outcome) based on all individual forecasts.

Understanding Superforecasters’ Backgrounds

Good Judgment works with some 180 Superforecasters from around the world whose forecasting accuracy placed them in the top 1-2% of the more than 100,000 forecasters who took part in the GJP or qualified on GJ Open. Our Superforecasters come from a wide range of professional fields, including finance, IT, humanities, social sciences, engineering, and more. This allows them to approach forecasting questions in a well-rounded way, combining their exceptional forecasting skills with specialized knowledge in different areas.

Age and Geographic Diversity
Superforecasters range in age from their 20s to their 70s and hail from different parts of the world. This geographic and demographic diversity helps to ensure that our forecasts are informed by a broad spectrum of experiences and viewpoints.

The Wisdom of the Crowd
We emphasize the importance of the wisdom of the crowd. Our Superforecasters read different publications in various languages and bring diverse perspectives to the table. To borrow terminology from Tetlock’s training materials in the GJP, some are Intuitive Scientists, others are Intuitive Historians, while still others are Intuitive Data Scientists.

Collaborative Nature of Forecasting
Forecasting at GJI is a team effort. We focus on collective intelligence. It’s not about individual forecasting superheroes tackling challenges alone but about identifying people who bring unique strengths to the table as a team of Superforecasters.

Get actionable early insights on top-of-mind questions by subscribing to our forecasting monitoring tool, FutureFirst™!