Superforecasting Explained in Podcasts and Videos

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Superforecasting® Explained in Podcasts and Videos

Superforecasting is a disciplined approach to forecasting that uses probabilistic thinking, continuous updating, and rigorous calibration to make well-informed judgments about future events. This approach is based on decades of research spearheaded by Dr. Philip Tetlock into what traits and tools make some people remarkably good at forecasting while others, including many experts, fall short. Since IARPA’s massive forecasting tournament of 2011-2015, Superforecasting has been proven to outperform traditional forecasting methods in many areas, including finance and policy decision-making (e.g., see our forecasting report on the early trajectory of Covid-19). Below, we’ve curated our favourite podcasts and videos that showcase the principles and real-world applications of Superforecasting.

Top 5 Podcasts and Videos

1. BBC Reel: Can You Learn to Predict the Future? (8:21)
This short video from BBC Reel introduces the concept of Superforecasting in an engaging and visual way. It explores the techniques that make accurate forecasting possible and discusses how anyone can improve their forecasting skills.

2. Quid Explore: Superforecasting with Dr. Warren Hatch (22:32)
In this detailed conversation, Dr. Warren Hatch, Superforecaster and CEO of Good Judgment Inc, explains the science behind Superforecasting. He discusses the traits of successful forecasters and shares practical tips for applying these skills in professional and personal decision-making.

3. More or Less: Superforecasting the Coronavirus (08:57)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

4. Talking Politics: David Spiegelhalter on Superforecasting (48:55)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

5. MarketWatch: Can an Ice Storm Predict the Next Meme Stocks? (25:38)
This podcast explores the intersection of forecasting and finance, showcasing how Superforecasting can shed light on trends in the stock market. In this episode, Dr. Hatch defines “prediction” vs “forecast,” describes the innate characteristics that make some people better at forecasting high-stakes world and financial events, and explains how anybody, whether they possess those innate characteristics or not, can get better at forecasting with practice.

Take a Deeper Dive: Edge Master Class on Superforecasting

For those seeking a more in-depth exploration of Superforecasting, consider the Edge Master Class on Superforecasting led by Dr. Philip Tetlock. This short course covers the foundational principles and techniques of Superforecasting and features discussions with renowned experts (including Dr. Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate in economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow; Dr. Barbara Mellers, a leading researcher in decision-making and another key figure behind the GJP; Dr. Robert Axelrod, a political scientist specializing in international security, formal models, and complex adaptive systems), as well as entrepreneurs and journalists.

From Theory to Practice

Whether you’re new to Superforecasting or want to deepen your understanding, these podcasts and videos are a great place to start! Ready to take the next step? Superforecasters’ methods and traits can be learned and cultivated. Start building your own forecasting skills with our training programs.

Meet the winner of the “Right!” said FRED: Q3 2024 Challenge

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Meet the winner of the Q3 2024 “Right!” said FRED Challenge

The winner of the Q3 2024 “Right!” said FRED Challenge, Julio Vieiro, is a retired geologist with two decades’ experience in the oil industry as well as an investor, photographer, and painter. Known on GJ Open as JAVL, in this interview he discusses his interest in forecasting, his diverse hobbies, and his tips for fellow forecasters. He lives in Argentina.

GJO: Could you please tell us about yourself and your background?

Hi. I was born and live in Argentina. Professionally, I’m a geologist, and I have also studied biology and engineering. I worked almost two decades in the oil industry, and I’m currently retired. Additionally, I’ve been a photographer and painter for many years. Nowadays I dedicate my ever-scarce time to personal investments in the stock market, artistic activities, and a two-year program to become a professional sommelier. I enjoy mountains, the outdoors, sports, reading, and barbecues with my partner, my two adult children, and close friends. I’m interested in diverse topics.

GJO: How did you first become interested in forecasting? What brought you to GJ Open specifically?

During my professional development, I was always involved in the forecasting of technical parameters such as hydrocarbon saturation, mineralized thickness, porosity, pressure, etc. In this context, I was often curious why many highly trained professionals had an unconscious tendency to “fall in love” with their own ideas or models, or to expect results mainly according to their desires or what they thought someone expected, wrongly allocating resources or expectations. Frequently, people were more accurate evaluating their peers’ projects than their own.

In my case, Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow was very revealing. It allowed me to give shape to the intuition that humans have evolved not to develop accurate objective explanations of reality but to generate quick, plausible explanations in order to effectively operate in our original environment, which is not the current one. The way I see it, many times our minds tend to take shortcuts that seem reasonable and/or comforting instead of doing the hard work of looking for evidence. This characteristic would not always help us understand complex situations, especially if we are emotionally involved.

Regarding GJ Open, during the pandemic I read Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting and found it captivating. I decided to join GJ Open as a fun challenge to test in a non-subjective way my abilities to predict results of complex situations.

GJO: You had some tough competition in the Q3 2024 “Right!” said FRED Challenge. In your opinion, what helped you top the leaderboard?

I’m sure there’s always a dose of luck, some randomness. On the other hand, I try to pay attention to economic data. There is a great availability of information and projections, and it’s difficult to weigh which variables are really relevant and which have little or no impact. I also try to understand the probabilities of future events that could change the observed trends.

GJO: What types of forecasting questions do you enjoy the most? What topics would you like to see more of on the platform in 2025?

I’m more interested in some topics, such as economics, technology, space, sports. I tend to focus on what I enjoy most and what I’m interested in learning about. Evaluating the possible results helps understanding and stimulates the search for information. I prefer questions with data available, not just opinions. I also prefer questions where possible outcomes are expressed in ranges with multiple probabilities rather than yes/no or single probability answers.

I would like to have more questions related to the Latin American reality. In particular, my country is currently going through a complex and interesting economic and political process with still uncertain results.

GJO: What tips could you offer beginner forecasters on GJ Open?

I’m not sure what the best advice is, and I suppose there are many things that could be said. In any case, what I try to do is understand the question very well, not give an opinion on things that I am totally unaware of, look for reliable information and sources of data with frequent updates, and discriminate the relevant factors among the multiple ones that could influence a result.

What I find most important, however, is to find the point at which doubt or uncertainty makes us start to feel uncomfortable with the probabilities we assign. In my experience, people tend to feel too confident or secure. In many of these cases, something important could be missing. On the contrary, I often tend to overextend the alternatives to ensure I don’t err. I try, then, to force myself to rethink the problem in a different way or, more thoroughly, look for more information, or review what I have, to adjust the answer until I feel unsure. It’s not usually easy. Logically, at some point there are cases that are mathematically defined or where the probabilities seem to me less than 1/1000. Another exercise that I find useful is to assign a higher likelihood to those outcomes that don’t match the one that I prefer.

GJO: Is there anything else you’d like to add?

It seems to me that the exercise of making forecasts accustoms us to confronting our ideas with reality and trains us to make decisions with probabilistic logic, which I consider very important for both professional and personal life. It is also a very fun activity, a game where one competes against others and against oneself. Many thanks to Good Judgment for the enjoyment.

See the latest forecasting challenges on GJ Open and try your hand at forecasting!

Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

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Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.”
– Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting

In any area of decision-making where uncertainty looms large, accuracy is the gold standard. However, many decision makers often find themselves in a frustrating cycle—sometimes they make the right call, but other times they miss the mark entirely. Inconsistency can be costly. So, what separates those who occasionally succeed from those who reliably deliver top-notch forecasts? The answer lies in informed practice—one of the concepts at the heart of Superforecasting.

What Is Informed Practice?

Informed practice is not just repetition. It’s a deliberate and thoughtful process of learning from each forecast, refining techniques, and continuously updating one’s beliefs based on new information. It’s about approaching forecasting with a Superforecaster’s mindset—an outlook geared toward improvement, with a consistent effort to mitigate one’s cognitive biases.

What Can Forecasters Learn from Superforecasters?

Superforecasters, known for their uncanny forecasting accuracy, exemplify informed practice. They don’t pull numbers out of a hat or look into a crystal ball for answers. For every question they face, they engage in a rigorous process of analysis, reflection, and adjustment. Here’s how informed practice gives them the edge:

1. Learning from Feedback: Superforecasters thrive on feedback. They meticulously track their forecasts, comparing them against the outcomes to identify where they went right and where they missed the mark. This feedback loop is crucial. It allows them to recalibrate their approach and avoid making the same mistakes twice. Over time, this leads to more refined and accurate forecasts.

2. Understanding Probability: A key aspect of informed practice is the understanding and effective use of probability. Superforecasters don’t think in black-and-white, yes-or-no terms. They consider a range of possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each. They also update these probabilities as new information becomes available, a process known as Bayesian reasoning. This probabilistic thinking helps them navigate uncertainty with greater precision.

3. Continuous Learning: The world is constantly changing, and so too are the variables that influence forecasts. Superforecasters are voracious learners, continuously updating their knowledge base. They stay informed about the latest developments in multiple areas, thus grounding their forecasts in the most current data and insights.

4. Mitigating Cognitive Biases: Cognitive biases can cloud judgment and lead to poor forecasts. Superforecasters are keenly aware of these biases and actively work to mitigate their impact. Through informed practice, they develop strategies to counteract such biases as overconfidence, anchoring, confirmation bias, and more, to make well-calibrated forecasts.

What Is the Role of Collaboration in This?

Informed practice is not a solitary endeavor. Collaboration with other forecasters is a powerful tool for improving accuracy and keeping track. By engaging in discussions, comparing notes, and challenging each other’s assumptions, forecasters can gain new perspectives and insights. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters work in teams, leveraging the collective intelligence of the group to arrive at superior forecasts.

What Practical Steps Can I Take?

1. Keep Track: Keep a record of your forecasts and compare them with the outcomes. Analyze your hits and misses to identify patterns and areas for improvement.

2. Seek Feedback: Seek out feedback from peers or through forecasting platforms such as GJ Open, which provides performance metrics. Use this feedback to refine your approach.

3. Diversify Your Sources of Information: Regularly update your knowledge on the topics you forecast and seek out diverse sources. This includes staying current with news, research, and expert opinions, including those you disagree with.

4. Practice Probabilistic Thinking: Assign probabilities to your forecasts and be willing to adjust them as new information emerges. This helps you avoid the trap of binary thinking.

5. Challenge Your Assumptions: Regularly question your assumptions and be open to changing your mind. This flexibility is crucial in a rapidly changing world.

6. Get a Head Start with GJ Superforecasting Workshops: Consider enrolling in a Superforecasting workshop. Good Judgment’s workshops, led by Superforecasters and GJ data scientists, leverage our years of experience in the field of elite forecasting as well as new developments in the art and science of decision-making to provide you with structured guidance on improving your forecasting skills. Our practical exercises will boost your informed practice, offering you lifelong benefits.

Informed practice is the cornerstone of good forecasting and one of the secrets behind the success of Superforecasters. By diligently applying the above principles, you can enhance your forecasting skills and make better-informed decisions. See the workshops we offer to help you and your team take your forecasting success to the next level.