Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review

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Good Judgment’s 2024 in Review

Superforecasters always keep score. As we turn the page to 2025 at Good Judgment Inc, we look back at 2024 for highlights, statistics, and key developments.

What a year it was! From monetary policy shifts to volatile election outcomes, our Superforecasters tackled some of the most complex forecasting questions to date. Good Judgment’s clients and FutureFirst™ subscribers posed 151 questions to the Superforecasters on our proprietary platform, with a total of 1,132 forecasting questions live in 2024 across our platforms, including on GJ Open, our public forecasting site.

Forecasting Highlights

Good Judgment’s Superforecasters continued to outperform financial markets in 2024. This caught the eye of, among others, Financial Times reporters.

“A group of lay people with a talent for forecasting have consistently outperformed financial markets in predicting the Fed’s next move,” wrote data journalist Joel Suss for FT’s Monetary Policy Radar in July 2024. For the year as a whole, the Superforecasters outperformed the futures markets by 22%.

Our partnership with ForgeFront and the UK Government’s Futures Procurement Network continued to grow in 2024. In November, Good Judgment’s CEO Dr. Warren Hatch spoke remotely at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) Futures Trend Briefing, discussing the role of Superforecasting in supporting the UK’s Biological Security Strategy.

We also saw an increased interest in subscriptions to specialized forecast channels on FutureFirst, including the “Superforecasting the Middle East” and “Superforecasting US Politics” channels. Individual FutureFirst channels provide access to a range of forecasting questions grouped by theme or topical focus and, like the all-inclusive subscription option, come with daily forecast updates and API access.

Media and Research

Throughout the past year, Good Judgment continued partnering with leading media organizations. Notably, The Economist once again featured our Superforecasters’ outlook in “The World Ahead 2025.” The focus for this year was on US tariffs, elections in Germany, Canada, and Australia, China’s inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Our Superforecasters were also referenced in The New York Times, Wired, and Vox, among other media outlets. (See our Press page for the full list.)

Our research partners at the Forecasting Research Institute continued exploring the applications of Superforecasting in approaching key questions, from AI forecasting capabilities to nuclear risk. The institute’s ForecastBench, released on 1 October 2024, revealed that the top-performing large language models (LLMs) lagged behind Superforecasters by 19%. (See our Science of Superforecasting page for all relevant scientific publications.)

Private and Public Challenges on GJ Open

GJ Open continued partnering with media, businesses, and educational institutions to host public and private forecasting challenges on their behalf. Our public challenges included those from UBS Asset Management Investments, Man Group, Fujitsu, City University of Hong Kong, Harvard Kennedy School, and The Economist. We also hosted private challenges for our partners to help them identify in-house forecasting talent and train interns and staff in probabilistic thinking and accountable decision-making. We supplied the tools, a secure platform, data analysis, and Superforecasters’ feedback.

Training

As we continued to provide forecasting training to professional teams and individuals, we saw an increase in virtual as well as in-person workshops, seminars, and presentations, which were conducted for hundreds of individuals in dozens of government, non-profit, and private-sector organizations across the United States and abroad, including in the UK, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

We’re excited to continue this journey in 2025 and wish everyone a Happy New Year. May it be a year of thoughtful forecasts and better decisions!

Superforecasting Explained in Podcasts and Videos

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Superforecasting® Explained in Podcasts and Videos

Superforecasting is a disciplined approach to forecasting that uses probabilistic thinking, continuous updating, and rigorous calibration to make well-informed judgments about future events. This approach is based on decades of research spearheaded by Dr. Philip Tetlock into what traits and tools make some people remarkably good at forecasting while others, including many experts, fall short. Since IARPA’s massive forecasting tournament of 2011-2015, Superforecasting has been proven to outperform traditional forecasting methods in many areas, including finance and policy decision-making (e.g., see our forecasting report on the early trajectory of Covid-19). Below, we’ve curated our favourite podcasts and videos that showcase the principles and real-world applications of Superforecasting.

Top 5 Podcasts and Videos

1. BBC Reel: Can You Learn to Predict the Future? (8:21)
This short video from BBC Reel introduces the concept of Superforecasting in an engaging and visual way. It explores the techniques that make accurate forecasting possible and discusses how anyone can improve their forecasting skills.

2. Quid Explore: Superforecasting with Dr. Warren Hatch (22:32)
In this detailed conversation, Dr. Warren Hatch, Superforecaster and CEO of Good Judgment Inc, explains the science behind Superforecasting. He discusses the traits of successful forecasters and shares practical tips for applying these skills in professional and personal decision-making.

3. More or Less: Superforecasting the Coronavirus (08:57)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

4. Talking Politics: David Spiegelhalter on Superforecasting (48:55)
Tim Harford talks to Terry Murray, GJ co-founder and project manager for the original Good Judgment Project (GJP), about how GJ Superforecasters tackled the uncertainties of the Covid-19 pandemic. This episode highlights how their methods and tools can be applied to making sense of real-world crises.

5. MarketWatch: Can an Ice Storm Predict the Next Meme Stocks? (25:38)
This podcast explores the intersection of forecasting and finance, showcasing how Superforecasting can shed light on trends in the stock market. In this episode, Dr. Hatch defines “prediction” vs “forecast,” describes the innate characteristics that make some people better at forecasting high-stakes world and financial events, and explains how anybody, whether they possess those innate characteristics or not, can get better at forecasting with practice.

Take a Deeper Dive: Edge Master Class on Superforecasting

For those seeking a more in-depth exploration of Superforecasting, consider the Edge Master Class on Superforecasting led by Dr. Philip Tetlock. This short course covers the foundational principles and techniques of Superforecasting and features discussions with renowned experts (including Dr. Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel laureate in economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow; Dr. Barbara Mellers, a leading researcher in decision-making and another key figure behind the GJP; Dr. Robert Axelrod, a political scientist specializing in international security, formal models, and complex adaptive systems), as well as entrepreneurs and journalists.

From Theory to Practice

Whether you’re new to Superforecasting or want to deepen your understanding, these podcasts and videos are a great place to start! Ready to take the next step? Superforecasters’ methods and traits can be learned and cultivated. Start building your own forecasting skills with our training programs.

Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

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Informed Practice and Superforecasting: Taking Your Forecasts to the Next Level

“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.”
– Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting

In any area of decision-making where uncertainty looms large, accuracy is the gold standard. However, many decision makers often find themselves in a frustrating cycle—sometimes they make the right call, but other times they miss the mark entirely. Inconsistency can be costly. So, what separates those who occasionally succeed from those who reliably deliver top-notch forecasts? The answer lies in informed practice—one of the concepts at the heart of Superforecasting.

What Is Informed Practice?

Informed practice is not just repetition. It’s a deliberate and thoughtful process of learning from each forecast, refining techniques, and continuously updating one’s beliefs based on new information. It’s about approaching forecasting with a Superforecaster’s mindset—an outlook geared toward improvement, with a consistent effort to mitigate one’s cognitive biases.

What Can Forecasters Learn from Superforecasters?

Superforecasters, known for their uncanny forecasting accuracy, exemplify informed practice. They don’t pull numbers out of a hat or look into a crystal ball for answers. For every question they face, they engage in a rigorous process of analysis, reflection, and adjustment. Here’s how informed practice gives them the edge:

1. Learning from Feedback: Superforecasters thrive on feedback. They meticulously track their forecasts, comparing them against the outcomes to identify where they went right and where they missed the mark. This feedback loop is crucial. It allows them to recalibrate their approach and avoid making the same mistakes twice. Over time, this leads to more refined and accurate forecasts.

2. Understanding Probability: A key aspect of informed practice is the understanding and effective use of probability. Superforecasters don’t think in black-and-white, yes-or-no terms. They consider a range of possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each. They also update these probabilities as new information becomes available, a process known as Bayesian reasoning. This probabilistic thinking helps them navigate uncertainty with greater precision.

3. Continuous Learning: The world is constantly changing, and so too are the variables that influence forecasts. Superforecasters are voracious learners, continuously updating their knowledge base. They stay informed about the latest developments in multiple areas, thus grounding their forecasts in the most current data and insights.

4. Mitigating Cognitive Biases: Cognitive biases can cloud judgment and lead to poor forecasts. Superforecasters are keenly aware of these biases and actively work to mitigate their impact. Through informed practice, they develop strategies to counteract such biases as overconfidence, anchoring, confirmation bias, and more, to make well-calibrated forecasts.

What Is the Role of Collaboration in This?

Informed practice is not a solitary endeavor. Collaboration with other forecasters is a powerful tool for improving accuracy and keeping track. By engaging in discussions, comparing notes, and challenging each other’s assumptions, forecasters can gain new perspectives and insights. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters work in teams, leveraging the collective intelligence of the group to arrive at superior forecasts.

What Practical Steps Can I Take?

1. Keep Track: Keep a record of your forecasts and compare them with the outcomes. Analyze your hits and misses to identify patterns and areas for improvement.

2. Seek Feedback: Seek out feedback from peers or through forecasting platforms such as GJ Open, which provides performance metrics. Use this feedback to refine your approach.

3. Diversify Your Sources of Information: Regularly update your knowledge on the topics you forecast and seek out diverse sources. This includes staying current with news, research, and expert opinions, including those you disagree with.

4. Practice Probabilistic Thinking: Assign probabilities to your forecasts and be willing to adjust them as new information emerges. This helps you avoid the trap of binary thinking.

5. Challenge Your Assumptions: Regularly question your assumptions and be open to changing your mind. This flexibility is crucial in a rapidly changing world.

6. Get a Head Start with GJ Superforecasting Workshops: Consider enrolling in a Superforecasting workshop. Good Judgment’s workshops, led by Superforecasters and GJ data scientists, leverage our years of experience in the field of elite forecasting as well as new developments in the art and science of decision-making to provide you with structured guidance on improving your forecasting skills. Our practical exercises will boost your informed practice, offering you lifelong benefits.

Informed practice is the cornerstone of good forecasting and one of the secrets behind the success of Superforecasters. By diligently applying the above principles, you can enhance your forecasting skills and make better-informed decisions. See the workshops we offer to help you and your team take your forecasting success to the next level.