Interview with the winner of the “Right!” said FRED Challenge

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Interview with the winner of the “Right!” said FRED Challenge

In this interview, we sit down with the winner of the “Right!” said FRED Challenge for Q2 2024, Sigitas Keras. Known on GJ Open as sigis, Sigitas is an experienced quant and trader who decided to explore the world of forecasting after an impressive 25-year career in finance. With a PhD in mathematics and a natural curiosity about the world, he shares insights into the unique challenge he has taken on to forecast every question on GJO in 2024 and the strategies that helped him excel on the platform. Originally from Lithuania, Sigitas currently lives in Canada.

GJO: What is your background, and how did you first become interested in forecasting?

I was born in Lithuania, have a PhD in maths, but, as many others with a similar background, ended up in finance industry. After almost 25 years as a quant and a trader, I recently retired, which freed up a lot of time for other things. I tried forecasting on GJO for the first time a couple years ago. It seemed like an interesting challenge where I could combine analytical skills and general curiosity about the world.

GJO: How did you learn about GJ Open? How would you describe your experience on the platform so far?

I read Tetlock’s book Superforecasting, so likely that was an initial prompt, but to be honest I don’t remember full details anymore. Rightly or wrongly, I am one of the few forecasters who decided to forecast every question in 2024. It was very enjoyable, and I feel I learnt a lot both about forecasting and about various topics, but I have to admit this is getting too difficult to maintain. I don’t think I’ll continue doing all questions next year, and most likely will just focus on a few challenges, but I still like to maintain a good mixture of various topics.

GJO: What was your approach to the “Right!” said FRED Challenge? What do you think helped you come out on top?

I like questions that have good supporting data. In that sense, the FRED challenge is perfect for me. Whenever there is good data available, I try to use some mathematical model. Having a background in finance industry helps a bit with that, although I don’t think I use anything that requires more than FRED and other publicly available data and a Google spreadsheet. I also try to update my forecasts regularly, typically once a week. I think consistency is another important component of successful forecasting.

GJO: What topics would you consider of particular interest to forecast for 2025 and beyond?

I tend to forecast better when there is good data available for analysis. On the other hand, geopolitical questions are often much more challenging, so perhaps I will focus on improving there. My goal is to improve my score in the Superforecasting Workshops challenge!

GJO: Is there anything you would like to add that would be of particular interest to other forecasters on GJ Open?

I feel I am still very new to forecasting and to the community. One thing I hope is to learn more about other forecasters, their backgrounds, their approaches to forecasting. And if anyone has any questions for me, feel free to reach out.

See the latest forecasting challenges on GJ Open and try your hand at forecasting!

Superforecasting® the Fed: A Look Back over the Last 6 Months

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Superforecasting® the Fed: A Look Back over the Last 6 Months

 

The Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is the single most important driver in financial markets. Anticipating inflection points in the Fed’s policy has immense value, and Good Judgment’s Superforecasters have been beating the futures markets this year, signaling the Fed would continue to hike until the June pause while markets and experts alike flipflopped on their calls.

  • Ahead of the Fed’s March meeting, when Silicon Valley Bank went under, the futures markets priced out a hike and began flirting with a possibility of a cut as early as summer. Leading market observers like Goldman Sachs said the Fed would pause, and Nomura said they would start to cut at that meeting.

  • Then the futures markets priced in a pause for the May meeting. Experts like Pimco’s former chief economist Paul McCulley also prematurely predicted that the Fed would go on hold. As the date of the meeting approached, the futures markets—as well as most market participants—came to share the Superforecasters’ view that another hike was in the cards, but lagged behind the Superforecasters by nearly a month.

  • In the weeks heading into the June meeting, the futures were oscillating between a pause, a hike, and possibly even a cut. A stream of stronger economic data led experts such as Mohamed El-Erian to forecast that the Fed would continue to raise rates for at least another meeting and perhaps longer. Not the Superforecasters. They have been saying since 2 April 2023 that the Fed would most likely hit pause—a view that, once again, eventually became the consensus.

When comparing the forecasts of two groups—Good Judgment’s Superforecasters and the futures markets using the CME FedWatch Tool—for the last four Federal Reserve meetings, the Superforecasters assigned higher probabilities to the correct outcome. They were 66% more accurate than the futures (as measured by Brier scores) and had lower noise in their forecasts (as measured by standard deviation).

See our new whitepaper for details. We also provide subscribers with a full summary of all our active Fed forecasts, which is updated before and after each meeting (available on request). 

Good Judgment’s Superforecasters have been providing a clear signal on the Fed’s policy well before the futures and many market participants. Subscribers to FutureFirst™ have 24/7 access to evolving forecasts by the Superforecasters on questions that matter, including Fed policy through the rest of the year and beyond, along with a rich cross-section of other questions crowd-sourced directly from users, including questions on Ukraine, China, and the upcoming US elections.