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Who are the Superforecasters?
Good Judgment maintains a global network of nearly 200 elite Superforecaster® professionals who collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with a track record of unparalleled accuracy.
The original Superforecasters emerged in a geopolitical forecasting competition funded by the US Intelligence Community. The competition found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning probabilities to uncertain future events. Good Judgment cofounder Philip Tetlock chronicled the Superforecasters’ performance and unique attributes in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Engaging the Superforecasters
Good Judgment’s Superforecaster Analytics is a robust alternative data source to replace vague guesses or assumptions on what will happen in the future. Professional Superforecasters work in teams to distill information from available sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Armed with this information, organizations can minimize risk, capitalize on opportunities much earlier and with greater confidence, and gain an enhanced perspective on issues that matter.
How Superforecaster analytics works
Pose the right questions. Once you’ve identified the topics you want to explore, Good Judgment’s expert question team will work with you to frame your questions in a way that will deliver the most accurate and actionable answers.
Involve the Superforecasters. Your questions are released to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, who collaborate on our proprietary internal forecasting platform to generate informative and accurate answers within days. They then update their forecasts whenever new data, information, or analysis justifies doing so.
Receive an aggregated forecast and analysis. Good Judgment’s proprietary algorithm generates aggregated forecasts that are updated daily and made available to you through our FutureFirst™ online dashboard alongside the historical forecast trend. We can also summarize the Superforecasters’ commentary and analysis into periodic overview reports for each of your questions.
Example questions posed to the Superforecasters
Good Judgment Open
The largest forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is Good Judgment’s crowd forecasting site. There, more than 100,000 users provide their estimates about the likelihood of future events via topical Challenges.
Good Judgment Open participants hone their forecasting skills, engage with other forecasters, and track their individual accuracy compared to that of the crowd. Top performers, evaluated on accuracy, quality, and other factors, have the chance to qualify to join the ranks of Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters.
How it works
You can engage the public crowd and pose your own forecasting questions individually—or as a set within a Challenge with its own branded landing page. Good Judgment’s question team will help you construct the questions that best align with your goals. Once the questions are launched, a dashboard allows you to track the forecasting activity, and you can access the data any time.
Example questions posed to the crowd
Good Judgment provides private Superforecasting Workshops designed to help organizations develop a structured process for forecasting, collaborate more effectively, and enhance their team’s forecasting accuracy. Depending on your needs, these workshops range from two-hour lectures to half-day workshops, and full-day-equivalent workshops.
For specifics about workshop structures, components, and timing, download this brochure.
If you have a small group of individuals that need an in-depth introduction to Superforecasting, Good Judgment’s public Superforecasting Workshops may be a fit. Professional Superforecasters and Good Judgment researchers lead sessions on cognitive debiasing and collaboration to improve forecasting accuracy and practice skills in an interactive setting.
Good Judgment provides access to a private version of our proprietary forecasting platform to help organizations implement successful internal forecasting programs.
Depending on your needs, Good Judgment can set up:
Custom training with Good Judgment’s professional Superforecaster workshop team is also available for organizations that want to learn more about the practice of Superforecasting®.