Forecasting Services

Good Judgment Forecasting Services

Offered in partnership with Open Philanthropy to provide well-calibrated forecasts on the long-term future and responsive feedback

Pose Questions to the Superforecasters

Who are the Superforecasters?

Good Judgment maintains a global network of nearly 200 elite Superforecaster® professionals who collaborate to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy, beating all head-to-head competitors.

The original Superforecasters emerged in a geopolitical forecasting competition funded by the US Intelligence Community. The competition found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning probabilities to uncertain future events. Good Judgment Cofounder Philip Tetlock chronicled the Superforecasters’ performance and unique attributes in his New York Times bestseller, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Engaging the Superforecasters

Good Judgment’s Superforecaster Analytics is a robust alternative data source to replace vague guesses or assumptions on what will happen in the future. Professional Superforecasters work in teams to distill information from all available sources into precise probabilities—delivering the most accurate forecasts as early as possible. Armed with this information, organizations can minimize risk, capitalize on opportunities much earlier and with greater confidence, and gain an enhanced perspective on issues that matter.

How Superforecaster Analytics Works

Pose the right questions. Once you’ve identified the topics you want to explore, Good Judgment’s expert question team will work with you to frame your questions in a way that will deliver the most accurate and actionable answers.

Involve the Superforecasters. Your questions are released to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, who collaborate on our proprietary internal forecasting platform to generate informative and accurate answers within days. They then update their forecasts whenever new data, information, or analysis justifies doing so.

Receive an aggregated forecast and analysis. Good Judgment’s proprietary algorithm generates aggregated forecasts that are updated daily and made available to you through our FutureFirst™ online dashboard alongside the historical forecast trend. We can also summarize the Superforecasters’ commentary and analysis into periodic overview reports for each of your questions.

Example questions posed to the Superforecasters

  • What will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by floods in the world from 2041 to 2050, according to Our World in Data?
  • What will be the outcome of the next UK general election?
  • How many total cases of monkeypox will be reported in the US as of 30 September 2022?
  • When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Pose Questions to the Crowd

Good Judgment Open

The largest forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is Good Judgment’s crowd forecasting site. There, participants provide their estimates about the likelihood of future events via topical questions.

Good Judgment Open participants hone their forecasting skills, engage with other forecasters, and track their individual accuracy compared to that of the crowd. Top performers, evaluated on accuracy, quality, and other factors, have the chance to qualify as one of Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters.

How it works

You can engage the public crowd and pose your own forecasting questions individually or as a set within a challenge with its own branded landing page. Good Judgment’s Question Team will help you construct the questions that best align with your goals. Once the questions are launched, a dashboard allows you to track the forecasting activity, and you can access the data any time.

Example questions posed to the crowd

  • What will be the difference in the Earth’s decadal average global surface temperature in 2091 to 2100 as compared to 1881 to 1890?
  • Will climate change be a cause of human extinction by 2300?
  • Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023?
  • Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?

Pose Questions to My Team

Good Judgment provides access to a private, company-specific instance of our proprietary forecasting platform to help organizations implement successful internal forecasting programs.

Depending on your needs, Good Judgment can set up:

  • An onboarding portal survey to collect information that can be used for subsequent analysis about your group’s forecasting
  • Teams where your forecasters can have private discussions about the forecasting questions
  • Different aggregations allowing you to compare the performance of your forecasters against each other and to the wider crowd
  • Real-time reports with data about user activity on the forecasting platform and key performance metrics
  • Support from Superforecaster mentors and Good Judgment’s data science team

Custom training with Good Judgment’s professional Superforecaster workshop team is also available for organizations that want to learn more about the practice of Superforecasting®.

Train My Team to Forecast More Accurately

Good Judgment provides private Superforecasting Workshops designed to help organizations develop a structured process for forecasting, collaborate more effectively, and enhance their forecasting accuracy. Depending on your needs, these workshops range from two-hour lectures, half-day workshops, and full-day-equivalent workshops.

For specifics about workshop structures, components, and timing, download this brochure.

If you have a small group of individuals that need an in-depth introduction to Superforecasting, Good Judgment’s public Superforecasting Workshops may be a fit. Professional Superforecasters and Good Judgment researchers lead sessions on cognitive debiasing and collaboration to improve forecasting accuracy and practice skills in an interactive setting.


 

Other Services

Custom Superforecasts for complex topics using Bayesian question clusters and other techniques

Private forecasting tournaments where requirements go beyond the standard option in a Good Judgment Open Challenge or team described above

Advisory services to apply Superforecasting processes within an organization

See our Work

Superforecasting Long-Term Risks and Climate Change

To better understand the consequences of climate change, the Forethought Foundation turned to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters with 22 questions on topics such as future levels of CO2 emissions, the future of the Amazon biome, the cost of solar energy, and the risk of human extinction.

COVID-19: Superforecasting the Reopening

Part of a post-mortem exercise—a key step in the Superforecasting process—this report takes a look back at Superforecasters’ performance in forecasting the reopening in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Seven questions for the G7. Superforecasting climate-fragility risks for the coming decade

In this report published by the Weathering Risk initiative, Superforecasters spotlight key indicators that G7 decision-makers should monitor over the next decade to provide early warning of the threats that climate change poses to global stability and human security.

Forecasting the Future of Food

An innovator in the food industry worked with Good Judgment to turn its scenarios around alternative proteins into a first-of-its-kind index of future food trends.

Next Steps

Ready to get started? Complete this form from Open Philanthropy [need link].

 

Questions? The Good Judgment team is here to help.



About Good Judgment Inc.

Good Judgment originated as the Good Judgment Project (GJP) led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania. GJP was the undisputed victor in the competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events, which was sponsored by IARPA—the research arm of the US intelligence community.

Today, the commercial successor Good Judgment Inc is a forecasting consulting firm that provides public and private organizations early insights on real-world events. Our team of specially trained Superforecasters use proven principles to assign probabilities to possible outcomes—with topics ranging from geopolitics and economics to public health, finance, and technology. By providing actionable, numeric forecasts alongside insightful context, we help clients to quantify risk, improve their judgment, and make better decisions faster.

Good Judgment offers the most accurate early insight available from our professional Superforecasters through subscription forecasts on questions of broad interest and custom forecasts on the most pressing unknowns for your organization. We also help organizations and individuals build their own forecasting and decision-making skills with training and tools tested by Superforecasters and scientifically validated through Good Judgment research.

About the Partnership with Open Philanthropy

Open Philanthropy funds a variety of work aimed at improving the long-run future. This latest project targets select individuals, organizations, and projects that contribute to improving the long-run future in accordance with their philanthropic priorities. Good Judgment is one of the organizations selected by Open Philanthropy to offer best-practice forecasting services to these entities.

Intrigued?

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

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