Superforecasters vs FT Readers: Results of an Informal Contest in the Financial Times

Written by

Superforecasters vs FT Readers: Results of an Informal Contest in the Financial Times

In early 2023, the Financial Times launched an informal contest that pitted the predictive prowess of the FT’s readership against that of Good Judgment’s Superforecasters. The contest involved forecasting key developments in the year ahead, ranging from geopolitical events to economic indicators to heat waves to sport. The results? Illuminating.

“To help illustrate what makes a superforecaster worthy of the name, the FT asked both readers and Good Judgment superforecasters to make predictions on ten questions early this year, spanning from GDP growth rates to viewership of the Fifa women’s world cup final,” Joanna S Kao and Eade Hemingway explain in their article.

A total of 95 Superforecasters made forecasts on the questions, while the reader poll had about 8,500 respondents.

The Results

Nine of the ten questions have now been scored. On a scale where 0.5 equals guessing and 1 equals perfect prediction, Superforecasters scored an average of 0.91 over nine questions, significantly outperforming FT readers who scored 0.73.

In this informal contest, the Superforecasters continued to work on the questions throughout the year, while the reader poll closed early. Based on everyone’s initial forecasts as of 2 February 2023, however, the Superforecasters outperformed the general crowd on eight out of nine questions.

Key to Forecasting Success

Key to the Superforecasters’ success, as the article notes, is their methodology. They focus on gathering comprehensive information, minimizing biases, and reducing the influence of irrelevant factors that only create noise. This methodological rigor stems from the foundational work of Philip Tetlock, a pioneer in the study of expert predictions and co-founder of Good Judgment Inc.

Read the full article in the FT for a fascinating glimpse into the realm of Superforecasting.

To benefit from Superforecasters’ insights on dozens of top-of-mind questions with probabilities that are updated daily, learn more about our forecast monitoring service, FutureFirst.

 


Ready to Elevate Your Forecasting Game in 2024? Embrace the Future with Our Exclusive End-of-Year Offer!

As we approach the end of another dynamic year, it’s time to think ahead. Are you looking to empower your team’s professional development in 2024? Look no further. Our renowned Superforecasting® Public Workshop will help you make your forecasting more precise than ever.

Join Our January 2024 Public Workshop – Unleash the Power of Accurate Forecasts!

➡️ What to Expect in the Superforecasting Workshop?

  • Advanced Techniques: Dive into the latest forecasting methodologies.
  • Expert Insights: Learn directly from top forecasters and researchers.
  • Interactive Sessions: Engage in hands-on exercises for practical learning.

 

📈 Special Limited-Time Offer:
Claim your 20% discount on the January Public Workshop (16 & 18 January 2024). Use code GJ20XMS at registration. Hurry, offer valid while seats last!

Stop Guessing, Start Superforecasting with Good Judgment’s Superforecasting® Workshop. Register here.

 

Full Marks from The Economist

Written by

Full Marks from The Economist

The World Ahead 2023 issue of The Economist revealing some of the Superforecasters' forecastsGood Judgment’s team of Superforecasters received full marks from The Economist for their forecasts published last year in “The World Ahead 2023” issue. Now that eight of the nine questions have resolved, The Economist’s editors were able to score the Superforecasters’ performance.

“The Good Judgment team had a good year in 2023, correctly forecasting the outcomes of the eight questions that were resolved,” the editorial team writes in the “The World Ahead 2024” print issue. “Global growth was 3%, China grew by 5%, ruling-party candidates won in Nigeria and Turkey, Vladimir Putin was not ousted, there was no election in Britain, no clash over Taiwan, and no nuclear device detonated by Russia.”

As to the ninth question in the 2023 publication, the Superforecasters continue to see a protracted conflict in Ukraine, likely going beyond 1 October 2024. That question remains open, and, as The Economist team notes, “Events in 2023 did not prove them wrong.”

“The World Ahead 2024” from The Economist is now available online and in print, and once again features the Superforecasters’ take on key questions for 2024. See their forecasts in the newspaper—or subscribe to FutureFirst™ to access all their forecasts that are updated daily.

About Good Judgment

Good Judgment Inc is the successor to the Good Judgment Project, a research team that emerged as the undisputed victor in a massive forecasting competition (the Aggregate Contingent Estimation or ACE tournament) sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) of the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Spanning four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts, that research project confirmed and refined methods that lead to the best possible forecast accuracy and is credited with the discovery of Superforecasters—people who are exceptionally skilled at assigning accurate probabilities to future outcomes. Good Judgment Inc is now making this winning approach to harnessing the wisdom of the crowd available for commercial use. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters are men and women around the world who go through a rigorous qualification process to demonstrate consistently high accuracy and quality commentary in their forecasting approaches.

About FutureFirst™

FutureFirst, Good Judgment’s exclusive monitoring tool, gives 24/7 access to timely insights on top-of-mind questions from a diverse global team of professional Superforecasters. It combines the advantages of an expert network with model-friendly quantitative forecasts of likely outcomes of key events. Daily forecast updates from our subscription service allow clients to spot emerging risks earlier and see ahead of the competition.

Why Young People Should Learn Forecasting

Written by

Why Young People Should Learn Forecasting

It is Good Judgment’s belief that teaching forecasting skills to young people will lead to better life outcomes for all.

Every decision is a forecast. Some are seemingly simple, like leaving home in time to catch the bus. Others are more impactful, like one’s career choice. At no point in life do we need to make so many critical decisions as in our late teens and early twenties. Yet, many young people are under-equipped in their approaches to making decisions.

Research in neuroscience and psychology shows that the prefrontal cortex—a region of the brain associated with reasoning and decision-making—does not mature until well into a person’s twenties. For this reason, many young people tend to overlook long-term consequences, discount larger delayed rewards over smaller immediate gains, and succumb to peer influence and undervalue risk. This leads to suboptimal choices, some of which may have repercussions for the individual’s well-being for years to come.

At Good Judgment, we believe that equipping young people with forecasting skills will help improve their overall decision-making abilities and lead to better outcomes.

Five Reasons Why Young People Should Learn Forecasting

  1. Forecasting teaches students how to predict future trends based on historical data. This helps inform their decisions in many fields, not least personal finance and career choices.
  2. Forecasting teaches students to recognize and minimize cognitive biases, such as overconfidence (for instance, failure to recognize gaps in one’s knowledge) and scope insensitivity (incorrect assessment of the scope of a problem or opportunity). Failure to account for cognitive biases in decision-making often leads to inferior choices and undervalued risks.
  3. Forecasting helps students grasp the concept of uncertainty in real-world scenarios. It prepares them to make educated guesses, even when complete information is unavailable.
  4. Forecasting teaches critical thinking. To make accurate forecasts, students must learn to analyze data, discern patterns, and consider multiple factors that could influence outcomes. The skills that come with critical thinking are valuable in many areas of life and work.
  5. Forecasting prepares students for a fast-changing world. We live in a world of rapid technological advancements, socio-economic shifts, and environmental changes. Young people who understand forecasting are better able to anticipate these changes and face these shifts proactively and with an open mind.

Good Judgment has long upheld a vision of forecasting becoming part and parcel of education. This vision is shared by many of our colleagues and friends as well as partners at education institutions across North America, Europe, and beyond. Since the inception of Good Judgment Inc, it has been an honor and pleasure to be part of many worthy programs that aim to bring forecasting into the lecture halls and classrooms—from a partnership with the Alliance for Decision Education in a pilot project for high schools in the United States, to hosting a GJ Open Challenge for Harvard Kennedy School students, to workshops for the best and brightest at the University of Copenhagen (Denmark) and elsewhere.

As the number of forecasting courses continues to grow, we look to a future of better decision-making, whether in personal lives, business, or policymaking.

If you represent an institution that shares our goal of promoting better decision-making among young people, we can support you by:

  • Designing and conducting training, from short workshops to semester-long courses;
  • Hosting GJ Open Challenges for your students to practice forecasting;
  • Providing forecaster feedback reports prepared by our data science team;
  • Providing mentoring by Superforecasters; and more.

If you are an individual interested in improving your forecasting acumen, join the internet’s smartest crowd on GJ Open, follow the advice from our Superforecasters (here, here, or here), read good books (some lists here and here), or explore such options as our self-paced online training course. And above all, keep practicing and keep track of your progress. As Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner write in Superforecasting, “Forecasters who practice get better at distinguishing finer degrees of uncertainty, just as artists get better at distinguishing subtler shades of gray.”